The paper describes the development and application of an innovative tool to produce accurate GHG forecasts in E&P operations.

BP has made a number of long term external commitments on climate change and GHG reduction. However monitoring progress towards meeting these commitments, and judging what interventions are necessary, relies on being able to produce accurate forecasts of future GHG emissions from both existing operations and new projects in development.

To support facilities make accurate annual forecasts in a consistent manner, BP worked with consultant partners to jointly develop a tool to provide these forecasts.

The tool can also be used to model and aggregate different operational scenarios e.g. varying flow profiles within a year, ambient temperature variation, part operation on diesel as well as fuel gas, use of spinning reserve generation etc.

The tool combines generic and equipment specific modules to produce a model of the facility. By entering the flow profiles of the major fluids handled by the facility, e.g. gas exported, it is possible to proceed from flowrates to equipment loading, efficiency and power requirement from a motor or turbine and then on to fuel gas requirement and GHG emissions, all quickly and effectively at the click of a button.

This paper discusses the initial development and validation of the tool's ability to provide accurate GHG forecasts to the realisation that it could be developed to provide many other benefits. Examples of its use are for optimising new facility design, and evaluating the financial implications of different operating scenarios such as changing gas turbine model or the number of compression trains. Results indicate that substantial savings in GHG emissions can be realised in a manner not available previously with such ease.

All of these sensitivities for existing operations and new developments shall be examined in its deployment across BP's E&P operations to provide accurate 5 year GHG forecasts and so provide sustainable excellence.

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