During steam drive development of heavy oil Reservoirs, only by predicting steam breakthrough timing and taking measures to prevent steam channeling will avoid the decrease of oil production rate, enlarge swept volume of steam, increase heat utilization ratio and enhanced oil recovery. Based on routine field performance data, the production performance index hosting information of steam breakthrough is transformed into the probability distribution of evaluation index and its Cumulative Distribution Function and Expectation are calculated. By applying Random Predomination Principle and comparing each pair of CDF, random predomination relation among all the indexes is obtained. Then establish an overall optimal sequence degrees matrix, calculate the sort order of production well steam breakthrough timing and sort the production well steam breakthrough timing. Finally, the multi-index forecast model for steam breakthrough timing during steam drive development of heavy oil reservoirs is established. Case application demonstrates that the results got by forecast model correspond with reality and forecast model enlightens steam drive exploration of heavy oil reservoirs.

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