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Keywords: standard deviation
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Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/IAEE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 17–18, 2016
Paper Number: SPE-179953-MS
... Reserve Estimation Farnsworth Unit Thickness FWU total uncertainty Standard Deviation parametric method deviation lognormal mean estimation society of petroleum engineers Monte Carlo simulation input parameter lognormal standard deviation probability ampomah order method Introduction...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 19–20, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-169836-MS
..., with optimum reward and risk levels, and increases the probability of meeting expectations. asset and portfolio management risk component mcvay Pvocf Portfolio analysis decision error NPV portfolio optimization risk-tolerance limit vector disappointment Standard Deviation efficient frontier...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 19–20, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-169841-MS
... uncertainty regarding average reserves or expected reserves . For example, we may begin by assuming average reserves are lognormally distributed with a mean of 330 mbbl and a standard deviation of 107 mbbl (the numbers used here tie to an example used later in the paper). The probability density function...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 19–20, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-169844-MS
... Intelligence project valuation type well investment scenario planning team Project economics different scenario rig day planning process business planning process type curve Scenario Reservoir Engineer Standard Deviation asset and portfolio management Upstream Oil & Gas information...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 19–20, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-169845-MS
... module oil price machine learning Project economics investment production forecast noise forecast probabilistic approach contribution Standard Deviation Introduction The estimate of a project's NPV is one of the main processes for a company that operates in the petroleum sector and has...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, September 24–25, 2012
Paper Number: SPE-162729-MS
... correlateable stocks to a point where the standard deviation of the portfolio would be below 8%. This information can be used by investors to identify trends and arbitrage opportunities in the energy sector. In addition, this information can be used by operating companies to effectively contrast...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, September 24–25, 2012
Paper Number: SPE-162675-MS
... diagram bratvold society of petroleum engineers risk management frequency category decision analysis standard deviation usage frequency Introduction Businessdictionary.com defines decision analysis as a "management technique in which statistical tools such as decision tree analysis...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, March 8–9, 2010
Paper Number: SPE-130172-MS
... of this paper and providing useful comments, and to Peter Lilienthal for suggesting the graphical representation of Figure 3 . Nomenclature Nomenclature Abbreviation Expansion E Expected Value NPV Net Present Value P Probability SD Standard Deviation Portfolio Mean...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, March 8–9, 2010
Paper Number: SPE-130104-MS
... price security market energy economics volatility price assumption investment option assumption market analysis supply and demand forecasting standard deviation upstream oil & gas investment supply and demand pricing price movement stability crude oil price Defining Risk "Risk...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 1–3, 2007
Paper Number: SPE-107562-MS
... Standard Deviation asset and portfolio management different scenario deviation Saputelli Visualization Scenario production scenario reservoir Introduction Oil and gas projects are affected by technical, economical, political or environmental uncertainties in various remarkable ways...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 1–3, 2007
Paper Number: SPE-107852-MS
... a correction process based upon Bayesian inversion obtained with Monte Carlo simulation. Estimate/Actual distributions characterize component evaluation errors. The mean and standard deviation of the E/A distribution measures the quality of judgments and estimates. Examples demonstrate the value of better...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 3–5, 2005
Paper Number: SPE-94661-MS
... standard deviation is used as estimation of the true project volatility. This approach is applied to a portfolio composed of 12 deep-waters oil projects located in offshore Brazilian basins. These projects have different characteristics in terms of oil quality, water-depths, CAPEX, OPEX, infrastructure...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 5–8, 2003
Paper Number: SPE-81996-MS
... probabilistic model construction standard deviation input distribution spe 81996 risk and uncertainty assessment probability risk management reservoir simulation deviation petroleum engineer asset and portfolio management hydrocarbon economic exhibition consideration strickland group annual...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 5–8, 2003
Paper Number: SPE-82005-MS
... portfolio analysis constraint npv standard deviation capex complexity spe 82005 portfolio optimization investor upstream oil & gas return metric asset and portfolio management objective d&ra expenditure annual technical conference risk management budget constraint reserves...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 5–8, 2003
Paper Number: SPE-82017-MS
... ranking being used. This trade-off maximizes value and minimizes risk for the entire portfolio. Prospect risk is modeled as chance of loss, or semi-standard deviation, and value is defined as the mean expected monetary value derived from probabilistic economical evaluation. A new geologic probabilistic...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 2–3, 2001
Paper Number: SPE-68578-MS
... will be applied by the utilised software during the simulation. After running all the cycles a frequency function is compiled from the results and this will serve as the basis for defining data relating to cash flow (e.g., expected value, standard deviation, values relating to 5% or other cumulative frequency...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 2–3, 2001
Paper Number: SPE-68592-MS
.... standard deviation stochastic system reserves replacement spe 68592 artificial intelligence upstream oil & gas cutoff porosity ultimate recovery measurement error information reserves evaluation estimates of resource in place knowledge probability reservoir calculation permeability...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, March 21–23, 1999
Paper Number: SPE-52951-MS
... Abstract A method is presented for fully risking projects such as exploration ventures or the acquisition of undeveloped reserves. The expected value will in general overstate "value" because it does not reflect the uncertainty in the project, as measured by its variance or standard deviation...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, March 21–23, 1999
Paper Number: SPE-52964-MS
... of information and methods used herein 20 . Between 1961 and 1977, the average political risk factor in Iran is on the order of 33% with a standard deviation on the order of 29%. During the immediate years leading up to the revolution (1973 through 1977), the average political risk factor calculated from...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, March 21–23, 1999
Paper Number: SPE-52960-MS
... model supply and demand pricing natural gas price energy economics machine learning market analysis prediction new york linear regression neural network consumption artificial intelligence price difference spot price scenario standard deviation trading scenario case scenario storage...

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