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Keywords: simulation
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Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/IAEE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 17–18, 2016
Paper Number: SPE-179955-MS
... reservoir model information application realization cluster analysis permeability Upstream Oil & Gas neighborhood connectivity unconventional resource economics porosity realization property realization energy economics Reservoir Characterization Simulation outlier two-way cluster...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/IAEE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 17–18, 2016
Paper Number: SPE-179954-MS
... summation of the individual prospect EMV’s; Success case scenario approach; Probability tree analysis; Probabilistic valuation using Monte Carlo simulation. EMV summation The EMV of each prospect, if calculated properly, represents the risked mean value of its range of estimated...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/IAEE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 17–18, 2016
Paper Number: SPE-179965-MS
... fluid properties and phase behavior are vital. Understanding the dynamic behavior of reservoir fluids and the reliable prediction of reservoir performance in unconventional formations like shale are quite difficult. Reservoir simulation is an important tool that makes this easier and the type...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/IAEE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 17–18, 2016
Paper Number: SPE-179996-MS
... variance threshold reservoir surveillance well distribution development failure simulation Introduction Onshore unconventional liquids-shale and gas-shale plays are often referred to as "continuous accumulations" or "resource plays". The characterization of perceived geologic continuity frames...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 19–20, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-169856-MS
..., and SPE standards, for 2P and 3P reserves categories, as well as, contingent resources, allows dealing with uncertainty inherent to a new field on development phase. Artificial Intelligence Upstream Oil & Gas estimates of resource in place resource in place estimate information Simulation...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 19–20, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-169821-MS
... present value (NPV) terms. As a secondary objective, the case study demonstrates that a probabilistic approach (Monte Carlo Simulation) can be used to efficiently arrive at a consistent conclusion to the primary workflow. The output of the probabilistic model includes P90/P50/P10 production and net cash...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 19–20, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-169863-MS
.... They choose to engage their best talent in a simulation of lease sales – mythical auctions that are run thousands of times – the collective output yielding insights into the best bid strategies at appropriate levels of risk. While simulation represents the science – setting a bid strategy based upon...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 19–20, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-169857-MS
..., the present paper proposes a comprehensive methodology for integration of these theories to the economic evaluation based on discounted cash flow under uncertainty of E&P projects. A cash flow simulator was specially built for the purpose, enabling the applications these theories on the relevant...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, September 24–25, 2012
Paper Number: SPE-162911-MS
... Abstract Many integrated evaluation teams use stochastic simulation only to estimate cumulative probability resource curves for exploration assets. Three deterministic cases are then anchored to P90-P50-P10 points of the curve and serve as the basis for in-depth engineering and exploration...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, September 24–25, 2012
Paper Number: SPE-162914-MS
... Abstract Traditional stochastic modeling efforts for exploration project assessment start from a model that incorporates estimates of uncertainties and risks and then simulates how the company (decision subject) acts as the risks and uncertainties are resolved (outcomes revealed). In resource...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 1–3, 2007
Paper Number: SPE-107949-MS
... higher oil recovery. This paper presents a workflow for coupling physics based reservoir simulator with an economic model to optimize the hydrocarbon recovery under uncertainty. In this work, a synthetic single well heavy oil reservoir model was generated and coupled with a spreadsheet based economics...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 3–5, 2005
Paper Number: SPE-94630-MS
... as a qualitative economic indicator. For validating this new economic indicator, STEP calculations have been conducted with the data from two published studies ( 2 , 3 ) in which SAGD related simulations were performed. The first example ( 2 ) provides no economic parameters, whereas the second...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 3–5, 2005
Paper Number: SPE-94661-MS
... and the simulation of the evolution of oil prices using the Monte Carlo technique. Three stochastic processes to track oil price dynamics were used: Geometric Brownian Motion, Mean Reversion, and a pure Independent Lognormal Model. Since price is uncertain, NPV will also be an uncertain variable, so that its...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 3–5, 2005
Paper Number: SPE-94665-MS
... 2 . For financial options, all these parameters, except future volatility, can be found in the spot market. For project, they are estimated using the project future operational cash flow. The project volatility is estimated using probabilistic modeling of the components of cash flow and simulation...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 5–8, 2003
Paper Number: SPE-81996-MS
... reduce the range of results. simulation reservoir tendency artificial intelligence correlation reserves evaluation upstream oil & gas annual technical conference and exhibition evaluator architecture porosity risk assessment calculation information probabilistic analysis...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 5–8, 2003
Paper Number: SPE-82009-MS
... a more sophisticated and strategic direction. State-of-the-art technology integrates optimization and simulation techniques into a global system that guides a series of evaluations to reveal truly optimal investment scenarios. Specifically, the new optimization techniques use an evolutionary approach...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 5–8, 2003
Paper Number: SPE-82024-MS
... from pertinent histories. Distributions of gas volumes and prices are then coupled in Monte Carlo simulations to generate probabilistic economics. Examples are presented using production data from Raton coal gas and the Whiskey Buttes (Frontier Formation, low permeability gas field) in conjunction...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 5–8, 2003
Paper Number: SPE-82021-MS
... using reservoir simulation to provide coherent production/injection forecasts for the field performance assessment. In order to achieve good quality solutions, different financial scenarios must be included in the optimization procedure, regarding constraints previously imposed to the project...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 2–3, 2001
Paper Number: SPE-68578-MS
.... The basis of risk evaluation is the net present value calculated with a cash flow model showing the breakdown in discounted differences of all future costs and revenues throughout on entire project. The simulation model will be programmed to handle the main incoming data, which define the market...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 2–3, 2001
Paper Number: SPE-68575-MS
... Abstract This paper compares the results of carrying out portfolio analysis and optimization of a collection of exploration projects that have been modelled using both decision tree and stochastic simulation approaches. The collection of exploration projects comprises the opportunity set...

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