... Abstract The paper discusses a novel workflow and tools for stochastic optimization under uncertainty aimed at maximizing the value of exploration and early appraisal assets using a public example of an East Africa offshore gas discovery. Following an initial discovery well, the prospect...

... correlation complex reservoir cash flow Energy Economics Upstream Oil & Gas uncorrelated case uncertainty correlation reduction prospect cost uncertainty unconventional play society of petroleum engineers frac stage investigation resource play Scenario type curve forecast History...

... & Gas value assessment portfolio optimization constraint optimized exploration planning dependency machine learning Portfolio analysis cash flow prospect hydrocarbon Exploration Opportunity exploration portfolio asset and portfolio management portfolio assessment evaluation exploration...

.... These short cuts often ignore any correlation or dependency between the chances of success for prospects in the portfolio. In undeveloped or immature areas, the commercial and development synergies and dependencies can also have a very significant impact on the ultimate expected value. These short cut...

... Oil & Gas prospect development case production well production profile base development case Drilling structural geology base case npv Chinarevskoye field producer production case development case base case The company has therefore five "geological plays 1 ", each of which...

... stage of exploration, and the eventual phases of appraisal, development and production offshore Uruguay. The technical and economic evaluation applied to a portfolio of offshore prospects models the level of expenditures and investment from exploration to production. The assessment of the potential...

... The simplest type of deterministic analysis of a prospect may include a single estimate of likely reservoir area, a volume of oil or gas per unit area, a recovery factor, and a POS. A single production forecast would be constructed, along with a single estimate of exploration and development...

... sections, defined prospects, wellpad drainage areas, or at the individual (delineation) well level. Predictive analytics techniques, in this case multi-variable linear regression, were used to construct the model. It was initially based on thermal recovery theoretical models for the SAGD process...

... prospect decision tree analysis information workflow spe 162883 Introduction A brief search on the term "stochastic reservoir modeling" in the SPE OnePetro database yields over 3,500 papers and articles. The first papers appear in the late 1950's and 1960's and the numbers have increased almost...

... reference recovery reservoir characterization spe 162903 assessment strategic planning and management upstream oil & gas development well prospect development plan earth model artificial intelligence information recovery reliability reference case voi analysis voi assessment perfect...

... (Capen, Clapp and Campbell, 1971) experienced in competitive bidding and how it affects bid optimization. portfolio optimization information true value Artificial Intelligence Upstream Oil & Gas prospect lognormal distribution judgment machine learning Portfolio analysis assessment...

... working interest participant owi country risk evaluation portfolio optimization strategic planning and management working interest risk tolerance prospect evaluation parameter farminee pvf art rav owi variance value uncertainty spe 94586 chance factor art rev risk adjusted value...

... project originator contribution typecase selection significant amount portfolio manager portfolio analysis capital allocation granularity business unit multi-scenario economics threshold spe 82010 portfolio optimization portfolio prospect metric asset and portfolio management upstream...

... prospect portfolio by assigning probability distributions to geological, engineering, and economical characteristics. Monte Carlo simulation was also applied so that uncertainty could be modeled for probabilistic input values. Finally, an efficient frontier analysis was generated by building optimal...

... evaluation government gross revenue profit split contractor group regime threshold mechanism equatorial guinean psc scenario prospect Introduction The potential development scenarios are distinguished by the peak throughput that the facility can handle. In the smallest case the facility...

... Abstract This case history describes the creation of a spreadsheet-based, Monte-Carlo economic model for exploration prospects. Looking at "probabilistic economics" instead of "probabilistic reserves" allows decision-makers a better understanding of the potential outcomes associated...

... The estimated oil production and the associated exploration, capital and drilling costs for the base case are provided in Table 7 . The OpEx are also presented in this table. The base case economic potential of this prospect indicated an IRR of 10%. Other economic measures are shown in Table 3...

... Abstract This paper describes an approach for simulating and appropriately valuing complex E&P projects containing multiple prospects. The approach uses a Monte Carlo simulation model, which is described, that simulates a play containing multiple prospects. The play evaluated can consist...

... government assessor prospect arctic national wildlife refuge increment accumulation reserves evaluation united states government attanasi and schuenemeyer spe 52948 discovery area economics and resource uncertainty fractile Introduction Undiscovered oil estimates are commonly presented...

... for measuring the impact of emerging technologies. exploration performance revision eqorwvgf heterogeneity survey area ikxgp upstream oil & gas amoco prospect probability exploration excellence reservoir characterization society of petroleum engineers artificial intelligence joint...