... Abstract The paper discusses a novel workflow and tools for stochastic optimization under uncertainty aimed at maximizing the value of exploration and early appraisal assets using a public example of an East Africa offshore gas discovery. Following an initial discovery well, the prospect...

... to a few expected outcome cases which were passed to the commercial analyst for further evaluation ( Schulze et al. 2012 ). Consider an example with a simple exploration prospect. There is a 40% chance that it will be successful and if it is developed it will result in a net cash flow of $100M...

... resource economics frac stage correlation prospect cash flow History investigation Energy Economics Upstream Oil & Gas uncorrelated case uncertainty correlation cost uncertainty drilling program reduction type curve forecast unconventional play society of petroleum engineers Well...

... Based on this hypothetical portfolio of prospects, the product of such a volumetric assessment for the portfolio of prospects could be as shown in Table 1 . Table 1 Summary of Prospective Resources for hypothetical exploration portfolio Prospect Unrisked Prospective...

... of abandonment after drilling of the exploration and appraisal wells. Resources The simplest type of deterministic analysis of a prospect may include a single estimate of likely reservoir area, a volume of oil or gas per unit area, a recovery factor, and a POS. A single production forecast would...

... sections, defined prospects, wellpad drainage areas, or at the individual (delineation) well level. Predictive analytics techniques, in this case multi-variable linear regression, were used to construct the model. It was initially based on thermal recovery theoretical models for the SAGD process...

... stage of exploration, and the eventual phases of appraisal, development and production offshore Uruguay. The technical and economic evaluation applied to a portfolio of offshore prospects models the level of expenditures and investment from exploration to production. The assessment of the potential...

... for the Chinarevskoye field. strategic planning and management Upstream Oil & Gas asset and portfolio management structural geology prospect development case base development case appraisal activity appraisal work total production Reservoir Characterization Chinarevskoye field producer production...

... reference recovery assessment strategic planning and management upstream oil & gas development well artificial intelligence information recovery development plan earth model perfect information probability reliability reservoir characterization spe 162903 prospect reference case...

... prospect decision tree analysis ooip end node correlation hydrocarbon Introduction A brief search on the term "stochastic reservoir modeling" in the SPE OnePetro database yields over 3,500 papers and articles. The first papers appear in the late 1950's and 1960's and the numbers have increased...

... (Capen, Clapp and Campbell, 1971) experienced in competitive bidding and how it affects bid optimization. portfolio optimization information true value Artificial Intelligence Upstream Oil & Gas prospect machine learning Portfolio analysis assessment judgment disappointment...

... variance rav strategic planning and management owi working interest risk tolerance country risk chance factor art rev evaluation portfolio optimization farminee pvf value uncertainty prospect evaluation parameter Introduction Decision-making theory states that when choosing between...

... project originator contribution typecase selection significant amount multi-scenario economics threshold spe 82010 portfolio optimization portfolio prospect metric asset and portfolio management upstream oil & gas economics portfolio manager portfolio analysis capital allocation...

... angolan psc probability regime equatorial guinean psc prospect reserves evaluation government mechanism project valuation reservoir simulation contractor cumulative probability threshold scenario Introduction In the engineering section the potential development scenarios are modeled...

... of exploration prospects and others have worked with portfolio evaluation, adapting financial modern portfolio theory to oil and gas projects. Information that is now available for many areas having high-quality and high-resolution 3-D data necessitates new approaches to geologic risk because...

... Abstract This case history describes the creation of a spreadsheet-based, Monte-Carlo economic model for exploration prospects. Looking at "probabilistic economics" instead of "probabilistic reserves" allows decision-makers a better understanding of the potential outcomes associated...

... Abstract This paper describes an approach for simulating and appropriately valuing complex E&P projects containing multiple prospects. The approach uses a Monte Carlo simulation model, which is described, that simulates a play containing multiple prospects. The play evaluated can consist...

... Abstract Traditionally, deterministic evaluation of geologic prospects has been used to assess their economic potential. In this paper, a probabilistic method (Monte Carlo Simulation) is described for evaluation of an offshore prospect in the Former Soviet Union. In this technique, both...

... developable area economics and resource uncertainty fractile united states government attanasi and schuenemeyer spe 52948 discovery north america government assessor prospect arctic national wildlife refuge increment Introduction Undiscovered oil estimates are commonly presented as volumes...

... of petroleum engineers information excellence effective technology ikxgp upstream oil & gas amoco prospect probability exploration impact prospect quality team eqnngevgf risk rgt petroleum engineer asset and portfolio management techn accuracy measuring society rffxuulqj seismic...