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Keywords: probability
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Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/IAEE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 17–18, 2016
Paper Number: SPE-179951-MS
... flexibility ( Myers 2015 ). During the early sixties, decision and risk analysis in the oil and gas industry consisted of defining resource probabilities and trying to understand how they affected the recoverable amount of hydrocarbons. During the eighties and nineties, advanced statistical analysis...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/IAEE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 17–18, 2016
Paper Number: SPE-179980-MS
... & Gas Bayesian network production data machine learning forecasting Decline analysis application algorithm scenario analysis decline curve analysis forecast evaluator probability likelihood confidence interval society of petroleum engineers reserves evaluation probability distribution...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/IAEE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 17–18, 2016
Paper Number: SPE-179954-MS
... of these outcomes involve success somewhere in the portfolio and the consolidated chance of discovery in Table 2 represents this probability. If the chances of success are treated as independent and the number of prospects is large then this consolidated chance of success can approach very close to 100...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/IAEE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 17–18, 2016
Paper Number: SPE-179953-MS
... geocellular model ( Ampomah et al., 2016b ). The reservoir is classified as a highly heterogeneous. Probability density functions for input uncertain variables were constructed to estimate probabilistic reserves using first order, parametric and Monte Carlo simulation methods. The relative impact of input...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/IAEE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 17–18, 2016
Paper Number: SPE-179996-MS
... development outcome type well estimate unconventional resource economics type well distribution pilot program Pilot Effectiveness risk tolerance production monitoring production control reserves evaluation information type well lognormal distribution probability resource in place estimate...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 19–20, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-169848-MS
... the resulting resource distribution, prepare economic projections for these cases, and estimate a probability of success (POS) based on geoscientists’ judgment about various risk factors. The POS is multiplied times the discounted net present value (NPV) of the success case, while one minus the POS would...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 19–20, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-169841-MS
... the future prospects for the field. Artificial Intelligence Energy Economics mean reserve Upstream Oil & Gas information assumption probability pilot well decision analytic complex reservoir haskett pilot program correct choice machine learning log reserve variance Standard...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 19–20, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-169850-MS
... porosities at different locations within a specific reservoir). Uncertianty is quantified by a probability distribution which depends upon our state of information about the likelihood of what the single, true value of the uncertain quantity is. Variability is quantified by a distribution of frequencies...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 19–20, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-169857-MS
... simulation inverse dependence structure marginal distribution joint distribution Capex random variable stochastic process probability copula theory Copula Gumbel distribution function economic evaluation correlation coefficient application oil price dependence simulation Introdução...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 19–20, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-169868-MS
... hole probabilities, or variations in production decline characteristics. Many of the risks or areas of concern to the CFO are ideally evaluated during opportunity evaluations and business plan development. These questions might include: Is the depth of the inventory sufficient to exploit additional...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, September 24–25, 2012
Paper Number: SPE-159587-MS
... is a series of confidence graphs depicting uncertainty reduction versus information options. The plots are developed using Bayesian mathematics and the reliability of information assessment interviews. They address: (1) the probability of a correct interpretation; (2) the probability the actual outcome...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, September 24–25, 2012
Paper Number: SPE-162630-MS
... unconventional resource economics history type well evaluator percentile type well type well rate production data time slice approach probability forecast Introduction This paper will explore how to create type wells that are accurate in producing a representative forecast and also accurate...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, September 24–25, 2012
Paper Number: SPE-162903-MS
... key development decisions, it should probably be forgone. This paper reviews an actual application of a value of information (VOI) approach to putting a number on the value that each of several different appraisal wells could add to a potential development. The theoretical basis of this analysis has...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, September 24–25, 2012
Paper Number: SPE-162914-MS
... of petroleum engineers scenario coalbed methane unconventional resource economics pilot well decision support charles stabell probability scenario weight spe 162914 Introduction Resource plays form a geologically diverse group, but include shale gas, shale oil and coal-bed methane (CBM). All...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, September 24–25, 2012
Paper Number: SPE-162929-MS
... hydrocarbon production. market analysis binomial lattice lattice energy economics artificial intelligence price regime enhanced recovery upstream oil & gas oil price model supply and demand pricing supply and demand forecasting one-factor mean reversion price model probability measure...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, March 8–9, 2010
Paper Number: SPE-129259-MS
... probability spe 129259 portfolio analysis decision maker asset and portfolio management williger efficient portfolio Introduction Securing a viable future for any business starts with the definition of aspirations and the development of achievable objectives. The chosen goals will reflect...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, March 8–9, 2010
Paper Number: SPE-130172-MS
.... There are many portfolios on the efficient frontier. The actual choice of portfolio depends on the risk tolerance of the company. A very risk averse company might select a portfolio with virtually no chance of loss. However, by accepting a small probability of loss, the company can increase its expected return...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, March 8–9, 2010
Paper Number: SPE-130185-MS
... scenario swift energy company probability full life development unconventional resource economics knowledge management south texas opportunity kossila kechemir requirement recovery spe 130185 upstream oil & gas Introduction Evaluating a resource play opportunity can be a daunting task...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, March 8–9, 2010
Paper Number: SPE-130157-MS
... Abstract Sound decision making requires the elicitation and quantification of key uncertainties. Probabilities are, in general, subjective and most petro-technical experts find assessing them challenging. Furthermore, much evidence shows that, although they may not be aware of it, assessors...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 1–3, 2007
Paper Number: SPE-107852-MS
... correction asset and portfolio management calculation error function reduction lognormal distribution evaluation error probability optimizer value estimate Standard Deviation project assessment decision policy Introduction Our primary goals for this paper are: Help publicize...

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