... learning Project economics estimates of resource in place resource in place estimate variance threshold well distribution Artificial Intelligence Bayesian Inference risk tolerance probability development failure Upstream Oil & Gas well population Bayesian method development outcome type...

... analysis production data variation application Decline analysis Upstream Oil & Gas Bayesian network evaluator probability likelihood scenario analysis decline curve analysis forecast probability distribution algorithm confidence interval single model society of petroleum engineers...

... planning reservoir probability Exploration Prospect society of petroleum engineers Introduction The different stages of the development of oil and gas assets include exploration, appraisal, development, production and abandonment. The exploration and appraisal phase of oil and gas assets has...

... geocellular model ( Ampomah et al., 2016b ). The reservoir is classified as a highly heterogeneous. Probability density functions for input uncertain variables were constructed to estimate probabilistic reserves using first order, parametric and Monte Carlo simulation methods. The relative impact of input...

... Intelligence Upstream Oil & Gas prospective resource mean value iteration hydrocarbon economics probabilistic approach NPV probability exploration portfolio development cluster dependency Mmstb Introduction The Prospective Resource potential of exploration portfolios is commonly results...

... to Capital target (set at less than 45%) is shown to have an 80% – 90% probability of occurrence, with the greatest risk that this metric would be exceeded depicted as occurring in 2015. The thin lines represent P10 and P90 outcomes from the Monte Carlo simulation, for an 80% confidence range of outcomes...

... reservoir simulation correlation Artificial Intelligence Upstream Oil & Gas coefficient Capex random variable asset and portfolio management reserves evaluation inverse copula theory Copula Gumbel stochastic process probability application dependence structure oil price marginal...

... the future prospects for the field. Artificial Intelligence Energy Economics Upstream Oil & Gas machine learning log reserve mean reserve complex reservoir information assumption probability pilot well decision analytic unconventional reservoir society of petroleum engineers haskett...

... costs, and a single economic projection. Then the POS is multiplied by the net present value of the success case, the probability of failure (1 – POS) is multiplied by the cost of failure (typically the dry hole cost of the exploration well), and these two products are summed to yield the expected value...

... uncertain quantities. "Uncertainty", "variability", "risk", "probability" are all words that are commonly used in discussions related to the predictions of future events (e.g. oil price), or the unknown outcomes of past events (e.g. reservoir properties). The purpose of making such predictions...

... hydrocarbon production. market analysis binomial lattice lattice energy economics artificial intelligence price regime supply and demand pricing supply and demand forecasting one-factor mean reversion price model probability measure long run price enhanced recovery upstream oil & gas...

... reservoir simulation well performance estimate production activity probability asset and portfolio management coal bed methane coal seam gas modeling eur well coalbed methane assessment unconventional resource economics pilot well decision support charles stabell scenario weight risk...

... monitoring project valuation reservoir surveillance upstream oil & gas industry standard practice type well rate energy economics asset and portfolio management unconventional resource economics production data field example time slice approach forecast data probability spe 162630 history...

... key development decisions, it should probably be forgone. This paper reviews an actual application of a value of information (VOI) approach to putting a number on the value that each of several different appraisal wells could add to a potential development. The theoretical basis of this analysis has...

... is a series of confidence graphs depicting uncertainty reduction versus information options. The plots are developed using Bayesian mathematics and the reliability of information assessment interviews. They address: (1) the probability of a correct interpretation; (2) the probability the actual outcome...

... selection can be accomplished by use of the Solver capability within Microsoft Excel. probability project portfolio downside decrease risk standard deviation only project efficient frontier probability distribution jackpot portfolio optimization upside portfolio careful selection society...

... spe 129259 portfolio analysis decision maker asset and portfolio management williger efficient portfolio probability Introduction Securing a viable future for any business starts with the definition of aspirations and the development of achievable objectives. The chosen goals...

... Abstract Sound decision making requires the elicitation and quantification of key uncertainties. Probabilities are, in general, subjective and most petro-technical experts find assessing them challenging. Furthermore, much evidence shows that, although they may not be aware of it, assessors...

...), the same approach is equally applicable to the major unconventional resources being developed worldwide. facility cost development option directional drilling resource play energy economics swift energy company development scenario probability full life development evaluation society...

.../appraisal wells, pilot programs, etc. – all are possible sources of data regarding the ultimate behavior of the reservoir. Unfortunately, all are possible wastes of money and manpower, too. Maximizing the probability of financial success in these plays requires a thorough, consistent value-of-information...