... flexibility ( Myers 2015 ). During the early sixties, decision and risk analysis in the oil and gas industry consisted of defining resource probabilities and trying to understand how they affected the recoverable amount of hydrocarbons. During the eighties and nineties, advanced statistical analysis...

... & Gas Bayesian network production data machine learning forecasting Decline analysis application algorithm scenario analysis decline curve analysis forecast evaluator probability likelihood confidence interval society of petroleum engineers reserves evaluation probability distribution...

... geocellular model ( Ampomah et al., 2016b ). The reservoir is classified as a highly heterogeneous. Probability density functions for input uncertain variables were constructed to estimate probabilistic reserves using first order, parametric and Monte Carlo simulation methods. The relative impact of input...

... of these outcomes involve success somewhere in the portfolio and the consolidated chance of discovery in Table 2 represents this probability. If the chances of success are treated as independent and the number of prospects is large then this consolidated chance of success can approach very close to 100...

... development outcome type well estimate unconventional resource economics type well distribution pilot program Pilot Effectiveness risk tolerance production monitoring production control reserves evaluation information type well lognormal distribution probability resource in place estimate...

... be constructed, along with a single estimate of exploration and development costs, and a single economic projection. Then the POS is multiplied by the net present value of the success case, the probability of failure (1 – POS) is multiplied by the cost of failure (typically the dry hole cost of the exploration...

... reserves y = ( y 1 , y 2 , y 3 ) = (ln 250, ln 100, ln 350). What is our updated probability distribution over μ ? This is a relatively old problem that dates back to the earliest days of decision analysis and statistical decision theory ( Schlaifer, 1959 ). We model this inference problem using...

... by a probability distribution which depends upon our state of information about the likelihood of what the single, true value of the uncertain quantity is. Variability is quantified by a distribution of frequencies of multiple instances of the quantity, derived from observed data . That both are represented...

... joint distribution Capex random variable stochastic process probability copula theory Copula Gumbel distribution function economic evaluation correlation coefficient application oil price dependence simulation Introdução Is there a structure of dependence between the oil price...

.... For example, the Debt to Capital target (set at less than 45%) is shown to have an 80% – 90% probability of occurrence, with the greatest risk that this metric would be exceeded depicted as occurring in 2015. The thin lines represent P10 and P90 outcomes from the Monte Carlo simulation, for an 80% confidence...

... is a series of confidence graphs depicting uncertainty reduction versus information options. The plots are developed using Bayesian mathematics and the reliability of information assessment interviews. They address: (1) the probability of a correct interpretation; (2) the probability the actual outcome...

... unconventional resource economics history type well evaluator percentile type well type well rate production data time slice approach probability forecast Introduction This paper will explore how to create type wells that are accurate in producing a representative forecast and also accurate...

... key development decisions, it should probably be forgone. This paper reviews an actual application of a value of information (VOI) approach to putting a number on the value that each of several different appraisal wells could add to a potential development. The theoretical basis of this analysis has...

... of petroleum engineers scenario coalbed methane unconventional resource economics pilot well decision support charles stabell probability scenario weight spe 162914 Introduction Resource plays form a geologically diverse group, but include shale gas, shale oil and coal-bed methane (CBM). All...

... hydrocarbon production. market analysis binomial lattice lattice energy economics artificial intelligence price regime enhanced recovery upstream oil & gas oil price model supply and demand pricing supply and demand forecasting one-factor mean reversion price model probability measure...

... probability spe 129259 portfolio analysis decision maker asset and portfolio management williger efficient portfolio Introduction Securing a viable future for any business starts with the definition of aspirations and the development of achievable objectives. The chosen goals will reflect...

.... There are many portfolios on the efficient frontier. The actual choice of portfolio depends on the risk tolerance of the company. A very risk averse company might select a portfolio with virtually no chance of loss. However, by accepting a small probability of loss, the company can increase its expected return...

... Abstract Sound decision making requires the elicitation and quantification of key uncertainties. Probabilities are, in general, subjective and most petro-technical experts find assessing them challenging. Furthermore, much evidence shows that, although they may not be aware of it, assessors...

... scenario swift energy company probability full life development unconventional resource economics knowledge management south texas opportunity kossila kechemir requirement recovery spe 130185 upstream oil & gas Introduction Evaluating a resource play opportunity can be a daunting task...

... and uncertainty assessment Upstream Oil & Gas information discovery well reservoir property MC simulation exploration coefficient bin midpoint fraction economic parameter tank model NPV distribution probability Risk analysis permeability Introduction By far the most common decision...