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Keywords: prediction
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Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/IAEE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 17–18, 2016
Paper Number: SPE-179976-MS
... of the growth in Chinese economy, speculations on American shale productions, speculations on the OPEC’s decisions, and conflicts in the Middle-East region. Our results show that our model can be used to reproduce the price trends compliant with the past data, and provide predicted trends of supply, demand...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, May 19–20, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-169855-MS
... pressure, horizontal well lengths), and a reservoir risk assessment to predict the key performance metrics for an in situ oil sands project using SAGD (steam assisted gravity drainage) including oil rates, steam-oil ratio and recovery factors. The reservoir risk factor is a quantification of the production...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, September 24–25, 2012
Paper Number: SPE-161792-MS
... Abstract Oil price prediction is one of the vital processes in every oil producing and operating company for current running projects and future new explorations, the whole different segments of industries and commodities would be also interested in knowing the future of oil prices, and we...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, September 24–25, 2012
Paper Number: SPE-161831-MS
... Abstract Since the early days of the petroleum industry, prediction of oil prices has been a real challenge. The puzzling question we need to answer when evaluating project's NCF is: how much is the price of a barrel during the life-span of the project? Accordingly, oil price modeling became...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 1–3, 2007
Paper Number: SPE-107659-MS
... on reconnaissance level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional scale...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 1–3, 2007
Paper Number: SPE-107710-MS
... Abstract Investors often select project whose estimated performance meets or exceeds a hurdle value. At the time of decision making, the true performance of a project is unknown but uncertain forecasts are available. Decision makers (DM) often ignore the prediction errors when they use...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 5–8, 2003
Paper Number: SPE-82014-MS
... Abstract The non-linear nature of historical oil and gas spot prices makes prediction very difficult. An evaluation of historical time series spot prices data with Fourier power spectrum analysis and autocorrelation function shows the likelihood of chaotic behavior. Characterization...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 2–3, 2001
Paper Number: SPE-68598-MS
..., and the Cotton Valley in east Texas. We calculated the infill potential for each of the three example formations. Based on our experience, we have found that comparisons between actual and predicted individual infill well performance can vary significantly. Therefore, ranking infill candidates on predicted...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, March 21–23, 1999
Paper Number: SPE-52957-MS
... This paper was prepared for presentation at the 1999 SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium held in Dallas, Texas, 20-23 March 1999. society of petroleum engineers investment oil company cash flow prediction market analysis probability project economics contract supply...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, March 21–23, 1999
Paper Number: SPE-52960-MS
... becomes vital in such a business environment. An integral part of risk management besides understanding the market's fundamentals is to develop quantitative models which help predicting gas prices or price changes based on market information. Current price prediction focuses on long-term equilibrium price...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, March 26–28, 1995
Paper Number: SPE-30033-MS
... Marlan W. Downey* Abstract Political risk assessment provides a prediction of the likelihood that future foreign government actions will deteriorate the return on a planned foreign investment. Such political risk predictions are commonly provided with great assurance by political experts...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, February 11–13, 1979
Paper Number: SPE-7456-MS
... present are also key determinants to efficiency. A present are also key determinants to efficiency. A numerical scale of efficiency is needed for the prediction of future success. Past exploration prediction of future success. Past exploration success within a search area is a result of two factors; one...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, February 11–13, 1979
Paper Number: SPE-7707-MS
... of opinion that oil availability is likely to reach a maximum in the late 1980s, thereafter leveling and even decreasing before the end of the century. As a recent IEA report states: " Developments in oil producing countries during recent months have demonstrated how difficult it is to predict accurately...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Symposium on Petroleum Economics and Evaluation, March 8–9, 1971
Paper Number: SPE-3316-MS
... economicus may be a politics. For while homo economicus may be a rational being with reasonably predictable reactions to a given set of conditions, man as a political animal is notoriously unpredictable. Hence, the often remarkable difference between foresight and hindsight on the oil industry. I could cite...

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