... c c e s s ) Where: NPV(success) = Expected or mean NPV of all possible successful outcomes Cost of failure = Discounted after tax exploration cost (well, seismic, studies etc.) The expected NPV (ENPV) should be the probability weighted average NPV of all possible...

... to determine the impact of these biases on portfolio performance. The results show that disappointment in performance occurs not only because the net present value (NPV) of the realized portfolio is lower than estimated, but also because the risk of the realized portfolio is higher than estimated...

..., and large cases. The value of the success case is then calculated as follows: Value of Success = 30% x NPV S + 40% x NPV ML + 30% x NPV L where NPV S is the net present value of the small case, NPV ML is the net present value of the most likely case, and NPV L is the net present value...

... projects profitabilities. The estimate of a project's NPV is one of the main processes for a company that operates in the petroleum sector and has to decide on which projects to invest. However, this process is particularly complex because it has a high degree of uncertainty in the estimate...

... ELT to assume abandonment dates which result in Net Present Values (" NPVs ") of discounted future cash flows which are lower than an Investor could achieve by using a different abandonment date. In such cases, the PRMS approach is tantamount to Investor value destruction. This paper presents...

..., for example, show that while a reduction in drilling and completion times may affect early production metrics, some other factors like production type curve have much more impact on the project's net present value (NPV) and Discounted Profitability Index (DPI). complex reservoir Reservoir...

... Abstract The development of any hydrocarbon resource should be planned to maximize the net present value (NPV) of the asset to stakeholders, subject to any imposed constraints. For example, in the evaluation of a single oil or gas well on primary production, assuming no additional constraints...

... case base case npv investment full cycle economic analysis extension production well production profile development case base case Drilling Introduction The below Figure 1 provides an overview of the geological layers. The company has therefore five "geological plays 1 ", each...

... economics modelling. As illustrated by Delta prospect, discrepancies between resulting NPV approximations and true prospect NPV may be material. Since it may take another generation to break the wall between deterministic and stochastic ways of exploration project assessment, this paper suggests an interim...

... achieved. Using performance data from the database, we can statistically quantify the change in expected outcomes (cost, production, reserves), and therefore the net present value (NPV) realized, as a result of different schedule targets. The results show that chasing aggressive first oil dates has...

... easily be characterized by strategy and the tradeoffs between them can be assessed. procedure constraint application portfolio performance measure budget constraint npv portfolio optimization portfolio selection variance exploration portfolio npv target objective upstream oil & gas...

... to optimize the development of a gas flood. As a second step, the workflow is used to solve a value of information problem. initial configuration enhanced recovery gas injection method case study npv artificial intelligence configuration optimization problem objective workflow reservoir...

... of this paper and providing useful comments, and to Peter Lilienthal for suggesting the graphical representation of Figure 3 . Nomenclature Nomenclature Abbreviation Expansion E Expected Value NPV Net Present Value P Probability SD Standard Deviation Portfolio Mean...

... of a fiscal policy with the objective of optimizing the HG’s take while providing an acceptable contractor’s ROR. ror taxable income agreement revenue upstream oil & gas project economics npv exploration period contractor price scenario fiscal term project npv project valuation fiscal...

... model to understand the synergies between the two domains. enhanced recovery steam-assisted gravity drainage thermal method optimization problem SAGD objective function normalized decision variable cyclic steam stimulation steam injection Simulation NPV normalized objective function...

... trajectories are generated using a mean reverting model. A complex income and tax calculation evaluates the net present value (NPV) of free cash flow, and a Monte Carlo simulation generates NPV scenarios for each project. We describe and compare optimization models that minimize several risk measures...

...) and the net present value (NPV) is investigated to access the economic viability of GTL plants. The range of CAPEX utilized is based on the production of one barrel of hydrocarbon liquid per day (BLPD) whereas the OPEX are expressed as percentages of CAPEX. Also, a construction period of three years...

... , these are: portfolio data cube constraint envelope efficient frontier frontier optimization problem upstream oil & gas asset and portfolio management portfolio optimization decision maker portfolio solution envelope npv efficient frontier analysis artificial intelligence portfolio analysis...

... one ( 3 ) provides economic parameters (ROR and NPV). In addition, STEP was used for optimizing the SAGD performance in the three typical Alberta oil sands reservoirs. STEP as a quantitative economic criterion The SAGD simulations described in this study have been optimized to have...

... to expand since recent installation results have demonstrated the value of these completions with a high success rate that operators find attractive. In this paper, we present an economic evaluation procedure to quantify the benefit of Intelligent Well Systems based on net present value (NPV) calculations...