... to decision makers or investors than the current practice of a single expected value. Portfolio analysis Monte Carlo simulation programme asset and portfolio management reserves evaluation Simulation prospect EMV portfolio optimization portfolio discovery drilling programme Artificial...

...). Reservoir Characterization Upstream Oil & Gas reserves classification complex reservoir Artificial Intelligence reserves evaluation discovery quantity estimation prospective resource guidance disclosure contingency experimental technology information resource estimate petroleum...

... into the probabilistic analysis can capture all possible outcomes, including non-commercial discoveries. This paper describes a stochastic model for valuation of an exploratory prospect, prepared in an Excel spreadsheet with the @Risk add-in. The model accounts for the U.S. tax implications of the purchase price...

... a tank production model and Monte Carlo (MC) methods to simulate the possible economic outcomes, and ensuing risk, of a primary oil recovery project as a function of the uncertainties associated with the reservoir properties. During the early stages of the field (i.e. pre-discovery) the uncertainty...

... continued to decrease while the initial decline rate increased. During the decade of the 1990s, over 25 Bcf/d of new western Canadian gas deliverability was added, from over 42,000 new producing well events. Based on the year of pool discovery and the year that the area was first connected to the delivery...

... reserve exploration productivity rate drilling proportion petroleum reserve discovery oil reserve new reserve depletion reserve addition technical progress determinant elasticity upstream oil & gas reserves replacement gulf new petroleum reserve spe 68604 mexico outer continental...

... resource distribution risk and uncertainty assessment technical risk kokolis scenario selection threshold simulation discovery litvak Introduction Figure 4 shows the same information in the format of a cumulative distribution. It is readily apparent from this figure that, for this example...

... government assessor prospect arctic national wildlife refuge increment accumulation reserves evaluation united states government attanasi and schuenemeyer spe 52948 discovery area economics and resource uncertainty fractile Introduction Undiscovered oil estimates are commonly presented...

... government litigation discovery property evaluation real return reserves evaluation texas study petroleum engineer expert research company problem alaska Introduction This paper opens a bag of worms which deals with expert witnesses and the difficult task of oil and gas property evaluation...

... acceptable profits out of the marginal oil fields, for the mutual benefits of both the country and the investors. profitable oil western desert project valuation exex mmbo project economics exploration expense asset and portfolio management discovery amortization optimum exex economic...

... base new mexico asset and portfolio management appalachian discovery natural gas reserve addition reserves replacement reservoir characterization tcf revision efficiency us government upstream oil & gas drilling positive revision reserves evaluation net revision field discovery...

... ABSTRACT This paper examines the characteristics of as yet undeveloped North Sea discoveries and shows that a significant number of fields will be able to benefit from the development of new production systems integrating, in particular, the advantages of horizontal drilling and multi-phase...

.... The study shows the primary Mississippian objectives have a current success rate of 18% and will average 169,500 bbl (26,948 m 3 ) per well; uneconomic at present oil prices and costs. field discovery carbonate conglomerate project valuation hardeman basin project economics objective hardeman...

..., if we set up the simulation analysis of reserves to include all reserve levels down to a "teacup" of oil qualification 2) cannot be satisfied. The economics of developing an apparent discovery are such that a minimum threshold value of reserves is required, even for onshore prospects. This implies...

... price volatile pricing condition exploration strategy development discovery dry hole cost asset and portfolio management exploration drilling statistics scenario strategic planning and management spe 16317 probability upstream oil & gas geology united states government reserve...

... were developed for marginal fields in the North Sea and other areas of the world, provide field-proven alternatives in the selection of a development system for deep water. A comparison is made here of the technical and economic aspects of such alternatives. discovery mooring system drilling...

... by recent exploration discoveries and set up a distribution of reserves by trend. Compute a distribution of development economics for reserve discoveries in a trend. Simulate drilling multiple exploration wells in each trend and calculate the risk adjusted return per trend. Rank trends...

... upon two main components: a drilling cost model and a discovery process model. A modification to a previously developed model has been prepared to estimate the discovery rates of natural gas based upon the Potential Gas Committee estimate of ultimate natural gas resource and the previous exploration...

... production from federal offshore areas in Alaska and along the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts. The Frontiers Model forecast does not include future discoveries of proved reserves in the Gulf of Mexico because many other forecasts for that more mature offshore area are available. However, just as production...

... how good is the North Sea"? Obviously, certain areas have reached an exploration maturity cycle that downgrades the potential for huge discoveries. Other areas are virtually untouched, holding huge potential -- yet in deeper water and more severe environments. The bottom line seems to be an economics...