... hours using a combined power of an exploration decision support tool with fit-for-purpose and fit-to-data risks, resource, and value assessment that honors all risks and uncertainties; a workflow management tool for decision optimization based on a multiple-realization approach powered by various...

... portfolio when assessed on a risk vs reward basis ( Back and Kirk 2012 ). Proposed Solution The proposed solution will address the technical challenges and not specific organizational factors that may have an impact on successful deployment and adoption. The solution is defined as a central shared...

... of the specific information an assessment might yield from these groups include: The logistics of how the project will be executed (including IT infrastructure) Uncovering business drivers Quantifying benefits How an organization works now and how it might be expected to work in the future...

... Abstract A management decision-making and planning tool has been developed to provide a quick, high-level resource quality assessment of oil sands assets to enable economics-based ranking of investment opportunities. It is systematic and transparent, largely avoiding the subjectivity and human...

... Debt ratio limits, capital investment limits, and earnings growth targets. Simple financial summary statement : A high level financial summary, including income, balance, and cash flow statements linked to the portfolio results can be used to assess changes to portfolio selections on financial...

... options on their uncertainty assessments? Through an efficient, multi-discipline reliability of information assessment interview process designed to help the team think clearly and openly about the amount of uncertainty reduction to be gained for different information/appraisal programs. The product...

... been covered by other authors -- the focus here is on the practical application of the method and advice on carrying it out. A VOI assessment is made on three proposed appraisal well targets in a discovered deepwater oil field. A standard application of VOI is used, using several key subsurface risks...

... Abstract Traditional stochastic modeling efforts for exploration project assessment start from a model that incorporates estimates of uncertainties and risks and then simulates how the company (decision subject) acts as the risks and uncertainties are resolved (outcomes revealed). In resource...

... Abstract Sound decision making requires the elicitation and quantification of key uncertainties. Probabilities are, in general, subjective and most petro-technical experts find assessing them challenging. Furthermore, much evidence shows that, although they may not be aware of it, assessors...

.... The example assumes one company (us) has assessed chance of success, test cost, and discovery value for a subject prospect. A brute-force Monte Carlo simulation approach solves Bayesian calculations for the auction simulation. The calculations produce estimates of 1) probability of winning the auction and 2...

... implementation are denoted by assignment to categories. Assessments may be conducted using deterministic and/or probabilistic methods. In order to satisfy requirements of the full range of industry stakeholders, the 2007 system introduces additional classification and categorization terminology. The resulting...

... information in project or asset evaluation, portfolio optimization, and competitive bidding. The premise of our approach to correct for optimizer's curse is straightforward enough, though implementing this method requires judging the population of evaluated projects—or at least assessing the shape...

... Abstract Unconventional petroleum resource plays present unique assessment challenges. These large, single accumulations cannot be counted and analysed as discrete entities that are delineated by down-dip water contacts. Equally important, the main assessment challenge relates to exploitation...

... Abstract Unconventional (continuous) petroleum resources present unique assessment challenges. Unconventional petroleum assets are large single accumulations that cannot be counted and analyzed as discrete entities that are delineated by downdip water contacts. This paper presents an integrated...

... of the detailed risk analysis and uncertainty management processes in place in companies around the world, production profiles have received scant attention. Single point or deterministic production profiles are the norm within companies. Even companies that subscribe to P10-P50-P90 volumetric assessment methods...

... quantities in most instances. The CSA guidelines for Probable and Possible reserves conform closely to the current SPE published criteria. While recognizing probabilistic reserve assessments, the CSA has adopted the SPE guidance that reserves should not be aggregated beyond the "field" level using...

... be estimated and analyzed to propose an adequate and profitable recovery strategy. Therefore, it is very important to develop fast and flexible methodologies with a low computational cost that into account the uncertainties related to economic circumstances to assess the risks in the decision making process...

... a company's hydrocarbon resources. The methodology is comprised of four elements: resource definitions, tying resources to production forecasts, valuing resources, and assessing uncertainty. A data collection process is outlined so that the same data can be used for multiple purposes including long range...

... Abstract The importance of properly characterizing undiscovered oil accumulation size distributions is demonstrated in the context of the recent US Geological Survey’s regional play assessment of the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The geologic and economic assessments...

... strategic planning and management capture dynamic complexity petroleum engineer Petroleum Exploration artificial intelligence supply and demand forecasting variance learning model projection trajectory scenario information bbvday assessment complexity market analysis uncertainty investment...