... address the drivers of uncertainty reduction potential: information tool accuracy; effect of the environment from which the information is being collected; the tendency of the interpretation to better forecast true low, true P50 or true high states of nature; and the representativeness of the information...

..., and that there are positive and diminishing marginal returns to forecast value from improvement in key measures of accuracy. We also find that forecast value is specific to user class, and that value is unique to specific users within the class. supply and demand pricing Modeling & Simulation Upstream Oil...

... in terms of improving the accuracy of our estimates? This paper explores the sources of uncertainty in an oil and gas evaluation and attempts to characterize these sources by their definition and interrelationships in order to better understand how to handle them. As geoscientists and engineers, we tend...

... time by as much as 50X with the improved accuracy that intense multi-discipline synergy brings. This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE Program Committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents of the paper, as presented, have...

... probability table spe 52970 accuracy asset and portfolio management society techn risk aylor information effective technology impact rffxuulqj seismic rgt petroleum engineer prospect quality team eqnngevgf measuring Introduction As has been reported previously (see Aylor 1 ), Amoco...

... databases for this methodology. At the same time, awareness of when certain parameters are not significant in determining capital costs is discussed. Elaboration on how precision does not equal accuracy is presented; many parameters are needlessly considered in new venture economic assessments. The major...

... probability distribution deviation convergence probability replacement united states government accuracy improved computation procedure INTRODUCTION The term risk analysis is used in various ways. Most commonly, risk analysis is associated with the technology of calculating the probability...