Traditionally, operators have reviewed experience from other job scenarios to assess feasibility when considering application of a technology. Therefore, when data concerning field usage is limited, as is the case for emerging technologies, new concepts that show promise of providing significant economic benefit are oftened abandoned. Generally, this is because of misconceptions concerning the associated risks of its usage. Since the assessment of the benefits of new technology cannot be based upon previous experience, an accurate method for understanding the "unknowns" of a new technique and analyzing the probable economic ramifications has been needed.

This paper will present a methodology that has been developed to overcome the assessment difficulties that accompany the use of new technology. This analytical process will attempt to quantify risk factors and determine event probabilities in the application of an emerging technology so that the unknowns previously supplied by experience can be predetermined in the application of new concepts. The process, its analytical concepts, and the model development that has been designed to assist operating companies in determining field applications for one of the new completion concept in the oilfield — multilateral technology — will be presented.

The analytical system discussed in this paper considers the difficulties in risk analysis for an emerging technology and uses the established techniques of "Quantitative Risk and Decision Tree" analysis and Monte Carlo / Latin Hypercube analytical simulation to correlate information that has been developed by operational and experience databases. The system facilitates the benchmarking of associated risk-weighted cost of system installation, determines "cutoff" points, and evaluates probable outcome impacts on the net present value (NPV) of a project.

Included in the paper are several examples and one case history. The information will provide a technique that will help answer questions raised in the process of risk assessment, not only for the specific area of multilateral technology to which it has been applied, but for other concepts as well.

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