One frequently sees ratios - often abbreviated as R/P’s - of the remaining oil and gas reserves to the annual production for a specified producing sector, geographical subdivision, nation, or even the world. Inferences of the remaining "life" of the producing sector treated are then drawn from these R/P’s. These inferences are, however, highly problematic. The reason is that the annual production in the R/P’s is an aggregation of production drawn from reserves added to an inventory in prior history, usually over many years, of the producing sector. In any year, some production likely comes from reserves found when the producing sector was "discovered", some from recent additions to the producing sector’s inventory of reserves, and the rest from reserve additions between those two extremes.

A more meaningful planning tool to assess the future of a producing sector would be a disaggregated R/P unlike the usual aggregated R/P. A disaggregated R/P is a ratio of the new reserves added in a year in a producing sector to the start-of-a-year annual production rate from the new reserves added in each year. Thus, disaggregated R/P’s mirror the choices made regarding how proportionately fast or slow rates of production are developed for each new reserves addition in the history of a producing sector.

Here we invent and use a mathematical model to deduce disaggregated, as opposed to aggregated, R/P’s. We show how disaggregated R/P’s can be interpreted. But, no doubt, the most important showing is the coincidental diagnosis that conventional aggregated R/P’s as predictors have unavoidable afflictions that are, hopefully, terminal.

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