Society of Petroleum Engineers 6200 North Central Expressway Dallas, Texas 75206
THIS PAPER IS SUBJECT TO CORRECTION
American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers, Inc.
The total demand for energy is expected to increase from 75 Quads in 1975 to 177 Quads in the year 2000. While the growth in total demand is forecast at 3.5 per cent, electric energy growth is forecast at 6.8 per cent, at almost twice the average rate.
Nuclear power, which makes up only two per cent of today's energy sources, is expected per cent of today's energy sources, is expected to constitute about 37 per cent of total energy demand by the year 2000. In the electric utility industry about 8 per cent of its energy comes from nuclear sources now. By the year 2000, about 59 per cent of all electric energy might be from nuclear sources.
Conversions to electric energy are most likely in the residential, industrial and transportation sectors. Residential electric heating predominates the space heating market. Industrial predominates the space heating market. Industrial conversions are caused by shortages of natural gas and concern over foreign imports of oil. Also, the industrial market is best able to implement "soft" technologies which conserve energy. Electric cars and expanded electric mass transportation may cause conversions in the transportation sector.
What changes are taking place in the demand for energy? What is causing the conversions to electric power? What are the consequential effects of energy conversions on the oil and gas industry? These and other important questions can best be answered by analyzing a 25-year energy model which describes and explains changing trends in energy demand.
It appears advisable to look forward over a 25-year period to the year 2000 in order to examine some marked changes in the energy picture. Consequently, a 25-year energy model picture. Consequently, a 25-year energy model was constructed which shows changes in the sources and uses of energy. The trend in total energy demand compared with the trend in electric energy demand is shown on Fig. 1. During 1975 the total normal energy demand was approximately 75 Quads (10 15 Btu's) after adjustment for abnormal weather conditions.