The purpose of this paper is to help you, the evaluating engineer, understand the assumptions and procedures used to estimate probabilistic reserves using numerical simulation. More specifically, we will examine Monte Carlo predictions in resource plays. Throughout this paper, I assume that you are a bright petroleum engineer well versed in the traditional methods of estimating reserves such as decline curve, volumetric, and material balance analysis, but you are relatively unfamiliar with numerical simulations and probabilistic reserve estimates. This paper discusses some of the basic concepts of Monte Carlo modeling with a particular emphasis on the underlying assumptions. The paper offers some definitions to help identify resource plays and the assumptions used to forecast reserves and performance. The techniques of Monte Carlo simulation are then applied to various resource plays to estimate probabilistic reserves.

You can access this article if you purchase or spend a download.