Understanding and managing subsurface risk is becoming an increasingly important business driver for oil companies. The ability to generate, manage and rank multiple models of a reservoir will allow for better economic forecasting, particularly at early project stages.

3D geological modeling is becoming a standard work process in many oil companies. Properly utilizing multiple scenarios and realizations for risk analysis, however, is a technique that requires a more sophisticated work process. Two main themes are discussed. First: how to frame the problem to generate reasonable model trees that will contain multiple stochastic realizations. Second: how to perform model ranking and select a small number of models for further investigation and analysis.

This is an evolving workflow in many companies. In this presentation we provide some ideas and guidelines for streamlining and focusing the work to the desired goal.

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