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Keywords: probability
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Proceedings Papers
The Best Number of Infill Wells that Maximise the Project Value in Unconventional Mature Oil Fields: Deciding how Many to Drill from Available Candidates
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europe Energy Conference and Exhibition, June 10–12, 2025
Paper Number: SPE-225478-MS
... geological uncertainty of each proposed infill location is determined using a stochastic-based reservoir simulation model. The uncertainty in each well location is plotted by a three-point discrete probability distribution (low (p10), medium (p50), and high (p90)) values and compared to the MEV. The wells...
Proceedings Papers
Uncertainty Assessment of Geothermal Well Injectivity
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europe Energy Conference and Exhibition, June 10–12, 2025
Paper Number: SPE-225489-MS
... waterflooding artificial intelligence machine learning scenario reservoir simulation sensitivity analysis reservoir geomechanics probability fracture half-length propagation minimum horizontal stress cdf enhanced recovery geological subdiscipline fracture growth fracture initiation uncertainty...
Proceedings Papers
Time-To-Event Analysis of Shale Reservoir Performance: Identification of Key Drivers for CO 2 Sequestration
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europe Energy Conference and Exhibition, June 10–12, 2025
Paper Number: SPE-225535-MS
... Abstract Time-to-event analysis (i.e. survival analysis) is a well-established statistical approach to analyze the probability distribution of and impact of various parameters on a time-domain of interest. This approach has been mostly applied to various equipment failure prediction problems...
Proceedings Papers
Financing Strategies for Oil and Gas Companies Pursuing Long-Term Energy Transition Under ESG Regulations
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europe Energy Conference and Exhibition, June 10–12, 2025
Paper Number: SPE-225633-MS
... neutral energy landscape. transition scenario carbon taxation social responsibility mechanism npv capital expenditure sustainable development carbon neutrality monte carlo simulation probability cash flow emission totalenergies sustainability investment financial strategy energy...
Proceedings Papers
Blowout Probability Estimation for CCS New and Converted Wells and Risk Assessment on Well Barriers Integrity
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europe Energy Conference and Exhibition, June 26–28, 2024
Paper Number: SPE-220102-MS
... (vertical, horizontal) and environmental conditions (specific contents of H2S, CO2 partial pressures and water cut). To estimate the final blowout probabilities Fault Tree Analysis is utilized to systematically identify and assess potential failure modes and their associated probabilities. The final values...
Proceedings Papers
Implementation of a Risk Assessment Procedure to Manage Well Integrity in Underground Gas Storage
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europe Energy Conference and Exhibition, June 26–28, 2024
Paper Number: SPE-220075-MS
... functionality of the barrier. On the other hand, if the risk assessment shows that the risks associated with the current well barrier condition are under control and proper mitigations are available, the well could be run within a strict working envelope. wellbore design probability natural gas storage...
Proceedings Papers
Clarifying Quantitative Language in the SRMS
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europe Energy Conference and Exhibition, June 26–28, 2024
Paper Number: SPE-219996-MS
... Abstract Numbers tend to have one meaning, whereas words can be open to interpretation, so one might expect the language of probability to be better at communicating the uncertainty in CO 2 geological storage resource estimates to project stakeholders. However, rather than assigning...
Proceedings Papers
Real-Time Rock-Properties Estimation for Geosteering: Statistical Rock-Physics Driven Inversion of Seismic Acoustic Impedance and LWD Ultra Deep Azimuthal Resistivity.
Available to PurchaseFabio Ciabarri, Cristiano Tarchiani, Gioele Alberelli, Filippo Chinellato, Maurizio Mele, Junio Alfonso Marini, Michel Nickel, Hilde Borgos, Geir Vaaland Dahl
Publisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE EuropEC - Europe Energy Conference featured at the 84th EAGE Annual Conference & Exhibition, June 5–8, 2023
Paper Number: SPE-214407-MS
.... In the inversion process, given co-located measurements of seismic acoustic impedance and logging-while-drilling electromagnetic resistivity data, the pointwise probability distribution of rock-properties is derived directly from the training dataset by applying the kernel density estimation algorithm. A non...
Proceedings Papers
Application of Bag-of-Features Approach to Drilling Accidents Forecasting
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE EuropEC - Europe Energy Conference featured at the 83rd EAGE Annual Conference & Exhibition, June 6–9, 2022
Paper Number: SPE-209643-MS
... was estimated using two major metrics.The coveragemetric, indicates the ratio of true forecasted events. Number of false alarms per day metricfor the specified probability threshold. Using different schemes of metric calculation, one could evaluate the model's ability to both forecast and detect accidents...
Proceedings Papers
Application of Numerical Flow Simulation Methods to Risk-Based Well Decommissioning Design
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europec, December 1–3, 2020
Paper Number: SPE-200608-MS
... sheath flow in porous media Upstream Oil & Gas topmost barrier application abandonment cement sheath permeability reservoir simulation flow rate combination plug probability distribution probability Scenario production control reservoir surveillance production monitoring...
Proceedings Papers
Influence of Representative Models in the Expected Value of Information Applied to Petroleum Fields Development
Available to PurchaseLetícia Siqueira Santos, Susana Margarida Santos, Antonio Alberto Santos, Denis José Schiozer, Luis Otávio Silva
Publisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europec, December 1–3, 2020
Paper Number: SPE-200525-MS
... for automatic RM selection (called RMFinder), which seeks to maintain the representativeness of the models on three main indicators: (1) crossplots that combine different output objective functions, e.g. net present value (NPV) and oil recovery factor (ORF); (2) risk curves; and (3) probability distribution...
Proceedings Papers
Exploration of Correlated Prospects and Possible Joint Development Solutions
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europec, December 1–3, 2020
Paper Number: SPE-200579-MS
... correlation Implementation prospect joint development solution development solution probability distribution discovery valuation development scheme conditional probability machine learning asset and portfolio management information probability tree Drilling Exploration Decision probability...
Proceedings Papers
The History of a Reservoir Model Become an Innovation Platform
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europec, December 1–3, 2020
Paper Number: SPE-200599-MS
... for the next development phase, proved to be valid during the drilling campaign of more than twenty HA-HZ wells, with only minor adjustments required to propagate the model. An automated workflow for geostatistical simulations conditioned by seismic probability cubes of facies and petrophysical properties...
Proceedings Papers
Gaussian Quadrature Accurately Approximates the Relative Weights of Each Reserves Category of the PRMS Matrix Through a Cumulative Distribution Function
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europec featured at 81st EAGE Conference and Exhibition, June 3–6, 2019
Paper Number: SPE-195480-MS
... and a distribution that matches the original data. For this work, we associate the lognormal CDF with a set of discrete random variables that replace the production data, and determine the associated probabilities. The production data for both conventional and unconventional fields are lognormally distributed, thus...
Proceedings Papers
Exploration for Disorder
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europec featured at 80th EAGE Conference and Exhibition, June 11–14, 2018
Paper Number: SPE-190826-MS
...Binomial Probability Theory (BPT) Binomial Probability Theory (BPT) determines the probability of a select event ‘p’ occurring exactly ‘r’ times from ‘n’ trials. An example application of this theory is summarised in Table 1 which models the probability of a head (‘H’) success event from...
Proceedings Papers
Successful Application of an Integrated Workflow for Seismic Reservoir Characterisation: From Thin Sections to Seismic Scale
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europec featured at 80th EAGE Conference and Exhibition, June 11–14, 2018
Paper Number: SPE-190771-MS
... are the hard data for geological modelling and support for petrophysical properties distribution, the corresponding upscaled log facies curves are used to populate the template for seismic elastic attributes classification to facies probabilities. The successful application to a green field in ultra-deep...
Proceedings Papers
Model Selection for Error Generalization in History Matching
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europec featured at 80th EAGE Conference and Exhibition, June 11–14, 2018
Paper Number: SPE-190778-MS
... − s ( θ ) i ) 2 / 2 σ 2 ) If the output constitutes a set of random variables having joint multivariate distribution, then the probability of matching all the points is the product of matching each point individually, and so is (4) p = ∏ p i...
Proceedings Papers
Maximizing Value of Information of a Horizontal Polymer Pilot Under Uncertainty
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europec featured at 80th EAGE Conference and Exhibition, June 11–14, 2018
Paper Number: SPE-190871-MS
... Value (EMV) difference of a decision tree with and without the pilot can be used if the Decision Maker (DM) is risk neutral. However, if the DM requires hurdle values through a Probability of Economic Success (PES), Value Functions (VF) and Decision Weights according to the Prospect Theory should...
Proceedings Papers
MICP-Based Elastic Rock Typing Characterisation of Carbonate Reservoir
Available to PurchaseFederica Colombo, Alessandro Amato Monte, Piero Balossino, Enrico Paparozzi, Antonio Valdisturlo, Cristiano Tarchiani
Publisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europec featured at 80th EAGE Conference and Exhibition, June 11–14, 2018
Paper Number: SPE-190885-MS
... Reservoir Characterization classification elastic space porosity Artificial Intelligence reservoir characterisation characterisation workflow micp-based elastic rock RRT probability society of petroleum engineers seismic scale facies model cluster analysis permeability machine learning...
Proceedings Papers
Economic Appraisal of Shale Gas Reservoirs
Available to PurchasePublisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Europec featured at 80th EAGE Conference and Exhibition, June 11–14, 2018
Paper Number: SPE-190824-MS
... viable at various F&DC and gas prices subject to satisfying the prescribed investment hurdle. complex reservoir Upstream Oil & Gas shale gas gas production gas well gülen shale gas reservoir economic model almadani Barnett shale gas price ikonnikova basin probability gülen...
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