Abstract

Hydrocarbon field (re-)development projects require the evaluation of a large number of development options under uncertainty. Furthermore, information of data gathering programs might result in narrowing parameter ranges and change the choice of the preferred development option.

The large number of development options (and decisions accordingly) which have to be taken under uncertainty leads to the necessity to determine the impact of the decisions on the (re-)development project objective. Knowing the sensitivity of the decisions on the project objective (e.g. NPV) allows for resource and data acquisition planning. The impact of decisions on the project value can be determined by performing a Generalized Sensitivity Analysis. This analysis does not replace Value of Information but facilitates planning and allows focusing on important decisions.

To further improve Decision Analysis and focus on important parameters, a Generalized Sensitivity Analysis of uncertain parameters on decisions can be performed. The advantage of such an investigation over sensitivity analysis on Oil Originally in Place (OOIP) or Net Present Value (NPV) is that it includes parameter interactions. Furthermore, it covers the impact of a parameter on the decisions directly rather than indirectly when OOIP or NPV sensitivity is used.

The analysis is shown at an example project in a Decision Analysis framework. The use of decision impact evaluation and parameter assessment on decisions might lead to more focused and faster hydrocarbon field (re-)development project execution.

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