A model of induced seismicity caused by water injection is considered. Analysis is based on the assumption of the existence of listric (curvilinear) faults. This presumes that shear stresses acting on the fault may be close to shear resistance at a certain part of the fault surface which is favorably orientated with respect to the principal tectonic stresses. Shear stress on the other parts of the fault is much less than the shear resistance. It is supposed that the pore pressure caused by water injection can propagate down the fault decreasing its shear resistance until shear stresses initiate propagation of shear fracture. Thus slip may occur on a part of the fault which is situated deeper than water injection depth. The slip, if happens dynamically, can be associated with a major seismic event.
Analysis has been performed to estimate possible locations of the event, its magnitudes and occurrence time. Results of these calculation agree with observations of seismic events reported for the Tatarstan oil province (Russia). It is believed that similar results can be found for other oil production regions.