This paper discusses the development and application of an Excel spreadsheet program for history matching and forecasting gas production from shale wells in the Appalachian, Michigan, or Illinois basin. The program is simulation-based and uses 1,000 to 3,000 simulation runs to a maximum time of 30 years. The simulation runs are made using a matrix of key reservoir parameters specific to the area of study. The output gas and water production from the simulation runs is incorporated into a worksheet in such a manner that any single forecast may be easily selected. The user selects a combination of input parameters from dropdown menus, and graphs of simulated gas and water production are instantly generated on the main worksheet screen.

Observed gas and water production data are entered into a separate worksheet for history matching and are plotted together with the simulated data. On the main worksheet, the drop-down menus are used to find the simulation input parameters that result in the best overall history match. Once a match is obtained, the user may easily export the 30-year simulated gas forecast for economic analysis.

This tool provides a simple method to quickly analyze short-term production data when no other means is available. Also, this tool can be easily adapted to different geological settings including shales, coals, and sandstones.

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