Over the past year, a healthy cottage industry has come into existence for the purpose of analyzing the prospects for enactment by the 98th Congress of significant amendments to the existing body of law affecting the natural gas industry. No legislation of this sort was considered on the floor of either House during the 97th Congress. The Administration of President Ronald Reagan accorded a higher priority to other matters, and the members of Congress responsible for natural gas policy did not consider the natural gas situation in 1981-1982 to be in sufficient disorder to require them force the issue on their own.

As the 1982-83 winter approaches, there is increasing evidence that events in natural gas markets may lead to a "spontaneous combustion" of Congressional proposals on natural gas policy, even if the President's priorities remain with the unfinished fiscal and monetary issues he has emphasized during the first two years of his term. During the recent mid-term Congressional election campaign, the President has been on the defensive to a much greater degree than any previous time in his Presidency. As a result, assumptions about the leadership role the President might be willing or able to play in such a debate must be examined carefully. This should be happening within the Administration right now.

In any event, the timetable for partial decontrol of wellhead prices of natural gas set forth in the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978 has made the first session of the 98th Congress, scheduled to begin in January, 1983, a testing ground for those who are dissatisfied with the NGPA or who feel that a new statement of Congressional intent with regard to natural gas ought to be available prior to the automatic decontrol of about one-half of our natural gas supply occurs on January 1, 1985. If a new law governing natural gas based on the perceptions of the 1980's is to be enacted before the NGPA scenario plays out, the first months of the 98th Congress will be the time to begin the effort.

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