This project was undertaken to evaluate well potential and completion effectiveness for hydraulically fractured horizontal Marcellus completions located in Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania. This paper summarizes a study of the response of the Marcellus shale to hydraulic fractures and identifies performance drivers. How effective are these completions? How would these wells produce if they were completed and fraced differently? What are the primary controllable production drivers? How significant is geology and reservoir characteristics on well production? This paper attempts to answer such questions. Identification of major performance drivers becomes important in the design and optimization of new completions. They are not just important in enhancing production response and ultimate recoverable reserves but also prove to be important economic factors in new completion design.

This study employs neural network (ANN) modeling techniques to develop a predictive model to identify performance drivers and evaluate completion effectiveness. Sensitivities performed on the predictive ANN model developed for this project, indicate that well to well variation in reservoir quality and geology has a dominate effect on Marcellus production. Issues such as fracture spacing, frac volume, perforation distribution, proppant amount and fluid volume also affect well production. A summary of completion and frac methodology for wells in this database and a ranking of controllable (Completion and Frac) and non-controllable (Reservoir and Geology) parameters that effect Marcellus production are included. This information will be useful to stake holders interested in identifying reservoir, completion and frac parameters affecting production from the Marcellus and other analogous shale.

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