Because of inherent uncertainties in drilling, evaluation and estimation of well drilling time and cost are preferred to be done on the basis of probabilistic methods. The purpose of this paper is to present a new methodology for developing an AFE generating model, using a specific Iranian onshore oil field development case study to illustrate the technique. The model utilizes risk analysis and incorporates Monte Carlo simulation in conjunction with statistical analysis of historical drilling data to generate more accurate risked AFE estimates. In addition to general methodology, ROWC (rate of well completion) is introduced. The results of interpretation and statistical analysis are presented as well.

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