Blow out preventer (BOP) manufacturers have conducted research and development for many years on how shear rams can shear drillpipe, casing and other tubulars passing through the BOP as a well is drilled. In this paper, a significant volume of data on the ability to successfully shear tubular goods is examined. Next, the commonly used and deterministically-based predictive equations for tubular shearing are re-examined and a probabilistic predictive model calibrated on a large test dataset is presented.

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