Abstract
The paper illustrates the approach to the formation of technological and instrumental base for selection of the optimal strategy to prepare the field for full-scale development and planning program of exploration plan/ experimental program, based on the example of multilayer field, including oil and gas condensate layers, differing in state of knowledge, conditions of sedimentation, reservoir properties, fluid properties, initial thermobaric conditions.
Several exploration wells were drilled on the field, the area is covered with 3D seismic, the set of well logs was carried out (including modern methods), the core was picked and analyzed, the wells were tested using exploration plan and experimental program.
The main purpose is to estimate geological and technological uncertainties and risks, and associated with them possible ranges of reserves and production levels. An algorithm for solving this problem included: review of the various options of geological structure, taking into account identified uncertainties, estimation of various development scenarios, taking into account technological risks separately for oil and gas reservoirs, and for the field as a whole.
Peculiarity of the work is the aggregation of modern technologies of modeling variability of the geological structure, filtration processes, estimation of key risks calculatingly of technical and economic indicators for each of the scenarios. As a result, against the background of negative economic indicators of field development, obtained according base scenario of development, it was detected that it is possible to use of current uncertainties and risks on the field as a tool to find alternative scenarios of economically viable development plans. Such approach, in case of confirmation in each scenario of hypotheses leads to increase of overall efficiency of the project. Based on the probability of confirmation of such scenarios, the strategy of exploration plan and experimental program of the field is formed, including the drilling of exploratory wells, their research, analytical and laboratory works. The program is presented in the form of a decision tree, allowing to see the course of events on "a step forward", depending on the result.
An integrated approach has allowed to optimize the program of exploration plan and experimental program: the amount of information needed to make decisions, received with fewer new exploration wells, that allowed to reduce the capital expenditures on the exploration plan and experimental program.
