A well failure model is constructed as a matrix that identifies the most common modes of well failure seen by the Well Operator. For specific well types, well anomalies are assessed before they happen, in a what-if risk assessment.

A traditional well failure model (WFM) includes a subset of possible anomalies and is based on subjective judgement. Total E&P Denmark's (TEPDK) new WFM uses quantitative analysis with an objective approach to risk assessment. This gives detail and clarity of actual risk (as a product of probability and severity) from well integrity anomalies not previously available.

This Analytical WFM assesses well integrity barrier compliance and risk. It uses individual component failure mode probabilities and severities and analyses thousands of potential leak paths throughout wells. It includes potential flow from multiple pressure sources and to multiple pressure sinks, providing a comprehensive understanding of all possible failure cases, and their associated impact on risk.

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) was used to calculate maximum Safe Service Life for wells following component failure. Outputs from the analysis were used to build a detailed WFM. Immediate and long-term actions were developed in workshops and suitable response times agreed based on the Safe Service Life calculation.

Engineers now spend 85% less time in well integrity risk assessments and failure management when anomalies arise because this work has been done in advance. This means engineers' time is freed for other valuable tasks. The company also saves management time, onshore and offshore, cutting down the need for management challenge and action justification. All personnel involved have a more consistent understanding of well issues, with routine anomalies dealt with much more efficiently. This means decisions are made at a lower level, including whether to continue to operate a well or shut it in.

TEPDK has reduced the probability of process safety incidents from wells. This is because it has a far more sophisticated, clearer understanding of well risks, and actions and timeframes for anomaly response. It has also improved production efficiency, safeguarding on average 2,700 boepd, through a reduction in well shut-in time. This has an equivalent value of approximately $50 million / year.

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