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... were embedded into the framework (Kaiser and Pulsipher 2004). Introduction project valuation host government payout period oil price project economics fiscal system government revenue internal rate of return upstream oil & gas cost recovery option nigeria petroleum fiscal system...

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... probabilistic forecast optimism directional bias value actual value overconfidence pessimism asset and portfolio management project valuation underconfidence unconstrained budget scenario true distribution budget scenario forecast directional bias Introduction The industry has suffered...

... Price follows Geometric Brownian Motion (See Appendix ) Option Valuation using Mean Reverting Model (MRM) for Oil Price The DCF methodology is widely accepted in the industry for project valuation. Approaches stated in items 2 and 3 are not as common as DCF; however, they are capable...

... as work program and production reports are generated. Working economics-portfolio-business plan system serves to address the modern E&P company challenges such as project valuation, risks associated with project (volume, delays, cost increase, etc.), optimal acquisition or divestiture terms, as well...

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... for decision-making and those that are actually realized. Finally we introduce the general nature of the bias that is the subject of this paper and provide a brief review of the evolution of its understanding with respect to decision making. risk management project valuation decision error budget limit...

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... bidders, on average. In the aggregate, the economic outcomes for lease acquisition and development in the Gulf deep were significantly higher than in the Gulf slope. Project economics asset and portfolio management US government cash flow investment Upstream Oil & Gas project valuation...

... gives a better view of the true value of managerial flexibilities in the context not only of projects, but on the portfolio that is much more realistic. Artificial Intelligence Project economics asset and portfolio management Upstream Oil & Gas project valuation correlation Monte Carlo...

... normal distribution project valuation log norm 0 future price price model asset and portfolio management historical data reservoir simulation energy economics market analysis Standard Deviation price fluctuation variability case statistics oil price supply and demand forecasting...

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... issues. monte carlo scenario spreadsheet well number scenario analysis project valuation resource in place estimate estimates of resource in place risk and uncertainty assessment frequency histogram capex risk assessment histogram reserves evaluation probability gas recovery risk...