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... and uncertainty assessment fatality module risk management major accident hazard project development society of petroleum engineers upstream oil & gas top event safety hazardous event spe 166245 consequence installation reliability INTRODUCTION The Cost of producing a barrel of oil...

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... as the product of three terms, the probability of an event, the probability of harm to an exposed person assuming the event occurs, and the total exposure of a person to that possible event. In the case of the risk of fatality to a single person, the following equation applies: (1) Risk = P f = P...

... This is a conservative estimate (i.e. errs on the side of caution) as smaller leaks have a lower probability of ignition and a lower probability of causing fatalities. However, even this conservative estimate is negligible compared to the wireline intervention case. Fault tree analysis gives only an assessment...