... and optimism (estimated distributions of project value too narrow and shifted positively), common in industry, produce substantial disappointment (difference between estimated and realized portfolio values), also common in industry. In this work, we generalized their framework to include full estimated...

... or, alternatively, the cost of underestimating uncertainty. In this paper we present a new framework for assessing the monetary impact of overconfidence bias and directional bias (i.e., optimism or pessimism) on portfolio performance. For moderate amounts of overconfidence and optimism, expected disappointment...

... decisions, less than the estimated expected value will be realized. Although some "proof-of-concept" instances of this behaviour (variously termed Post-decision Surprise, the Optimizer's Curse, Inevitable Disappointment) have been reported, it is not well-publicised in the O&G world and its importance...

... early treatment fracture conductivity society of petroleum engineers application well stimulation disappointment perforation fracture concentration hydraulic fracture fracture mechanics interpretation complex reservoir downhole intervention enhanced well stimulation production enhancement...