... that these greater degrees of overconfidence and optimism have been experienced in the industry. The value of reliably quantifying uncertainty is reducing or eliminating expected disappointment (having realized NPV substantially less than estimated NPV) and expected decision error (selecting the wrong projects...

... not, in practice, be as significant as previously suggested. risk management project valuation decision error budget limit asset and portfolio management Monte Carlo simulation variation disappointment Modeling & Simulation Upstream Oil & Gas selection Portfolio Selection Prediction error...