A steamflood predictive model for horizontal reservoirs based on severe steam override is presented. Unlike previous models, the current model is based on Vogel's1 observation that oil production is not driven by the growth of the steam zone, but rather vice-versa. Oil production rate In the current model is determined by conductive heating of oil below the steam zone. An "effective" steam condensate zone size is used to match the model to field data. The model was tested with twenty-three field cases and against thermal simulator results reported in the literature. Acceptable results were obtained with eleven field cases and with simulator results.

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