Abstract
Quantitative models of safety incidence allow managers to connect specific elements of the safety management system to outcomes. The results provide evidence that can be used to allocate resources to those incident prevention efforts that yield the highest returns in terms of avoided incidents. However, conventional methods of statistical and regression analysis of safety incidents do not account for the fact that not all incidents are reported. By relying on conventional methods, it is possible that resources are being misallocated, and that the industry is missing opportunities for improvement. This paper specifies regression models that explicitly account for imperfect reporting. The methods are applied to an operator provided data set of safety incidents. While all of the results of the case study are not generalizable, they clearly demonstrate the incremental value of a more complete model of safety incidence and reporting behavior.
