This paper describes three alternatives to Monte-Carlo simulation: (a) the first-order second moment method, (b) the point estimate method, and (c) the first-order reliability method, for the assessment of uncertainty in reservoir engineering calculations. These techniques are proposed as more suitable than Monte-Carlo simulation when information regarding parameter uncertainty is limited, the forward model is computation intensive, and/or the probability associated with only a limited number of model outcomes is of interest.

Keywords:
probability, estimation, artificial intelligence, variance, uncertain variable, spe 49313, uncertain input, stb, reserves evaluation, uncertain parameter
Subjects:
Reservoir Simulation, Reserves Evaluation, Probabilistic methods
Copyright 1998, Society of Petroleum Engineers
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