Abstract

Uncertainty has become an ever important subject for the oil industry as the engineer learns to use the skills of the mathematician. The use of distributions rather than single numbers, and uncertainty analysis has permeated through many common areas of the work of the oil industry.

Such methods have, for a number of years, been applied to estimate the range of reserves for discoveries. when applied to production forecasting, together with other techniques, improvements can be achieved both in the forecasts and in the understanding of the restrictions that are being placed on production. This, in turn, can lead to improved levels of production.

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