The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for developing an AFE-generating model, using a specific offshore field development case study to illustrate the technique. The model utilizes risk analysis and incorporates Monte Carlo simulation in conjunction with statistical analysis of historical drilling data to generate more accurate, risked, AFE estimates. In addition to the general methodology, we present an example of an AFE estimate using the presented techniques with an interpretation and statistical analysis of three years of drilling data for the North Sea.

Keywords:
spe 26339, risk and uncertainty assessment, risk assessment, historical data, risk analysis, artificial intelligence, drilling operation, time estimate, correlation coefficient, evaluation
Subjects:
Drilling Operations, Reservoir Simulation, Risk Management and Decision-Making, Risk, uncertainty, and risk assessment, Decision-making processes
Copyright 1993, Society of Petroleum Engineers
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