This paper presents the results from two simulation parametric studies of coalbed methane well forecasting techniques. Phase I qualitatively identifies the relative impact of key reservoir properties, and rank orders them. Phase ∏ uses a Monte Carlo simulation approach to quantify the degree of confidence associated with coalbed methane well forecasts for two sets of distributions of key reservoir properties. Results indicate that the range of error associated with the best currently-available reser- voir property measurement techniques significantly impedes the engineer’s ability to accurately forecast production with confidence, and points to the need for improved measurement accuracy for key reservoir properties.

Keywords:
accuracy, reservoir property, coal seam gas, sensitivity coefficient, simulator, drillstem testing, variation, complex reservoir, well production, flow in porous media
Subjects:
Reservoir Fluid Dynamics, Reservoir Simulation, Formation Evaluation & Management, Unconventional and Complex Reservoirs, Flow in porous media, Drillstem/well testing, Coal seam gas
Copyright 1992, Society of Petroleum Engineers
You can access this article if you purchase or spend a download.