This paper defines and discusses a number of significant factors which will influence the disposition of future production of crude oil from off-shore Santa Barbara leases currently under development.
Recent crude oil discoveries in state and federal waters near Santa Barbara could add 400,000 B/D or more to U.S. West Coast crude oil production by 1990. Most of this new crude supply production by 1990. Most of this new crude supply is expected to be a very poor quality-under 20 API with more than 3% sulfur and high metals and nitrogen content. Because crude oil of this quality has been a small proportion of the West Coast supply, refineries in the area are not designed to process the large volume that will become available. The quality of the oil presents major problems to these refiners with presents major problems to these refiners with regard to product yield, properties of certain products, refinery emissions, catalyst poisioning, products, refinery emissions, catalyst poisioning, and etc.
With continued production of other California and Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude oils and an outlook of low growth in oil demand, the offshore Santa Barbara production should increase the West Coast crude oil surplus. Currently, less than half of the total production of ANS crude is processed on the West Coast and the remainder must processed on the West Coast and the remainder must be shipped to other U.S. refining centers. Production of the new offshore Santa Barbara Production of the new offshore Santa Barbara discoveries will cause significant changes to the current system of West Coast oil logistics. More and possibly different crude oils will be shipped to Eastern refining centers. New means of transportation will be needed. Modifications to West Coast refineries may be justified. Crude-oil imports and refined product import/export may vary to balance refining capabilities. This paper briefly assesses these issues and proposes paper briefly assesses these issues and proposes a likely disposition of future offshore California crude production.
First, expected trends for refined product demand and available crude oil supplies are defined. This paper concentrates on California supply/demand trends. Within this context, the various factors influencing disposition of new offshore production are discussed in detail.
Energy consumption trends in California have been similar to the U.S. as a whole. From 1960 to 1973 energy consumption grew at annual rates of about 4.6% per year. Following a 4% drop in 1974 due to supply disruptions, growth resumed at an annual rate of about 4.3% through 1979. As shown on Table 1, energy consumption has declined dramatically since 1979 but is expected to resume growth with economic recovery and surpass previous consumption records by 1990. Petroleum will continue to supply most of these Petroleum will continue to supply most of these energy requirements.
Forecasted demand for major refined products in California is shown below.
CALIFORNIA REFINED PRODUCT DEMAND 1982 1985 1990 2000Gasoline 701 665 605 680 Distillates 193 205 230 280 Jet/Kerosene 162 180 185 200 Residual 230 235 235 235 1,286 1,285 1,255 1,395
This estimate reflects a continuing decline in overall vehicle fuel consumption through the end of the decade due to fleet replacement with more efficient vehicles. After 1990 increased driving is expected to offset fuel efficiencies so that consumption will increase through the end of the century. Throughout this period diesel fuel will progressively replace gasoline as a transportation progressively replace gasoline as a transportation fuel.