The aim of this study is to demonstrate the value of a fully integrated ensemble-based modeling approach for an onshore field in Abu Dhabi. Model uncertainties are included in both static and dynamic domains and valuable insights are achieved in record time of nine-weeks with very promising results.
Workflows are established to honor the recommended static and dynamic modeling processes suited to the complexity of the field. Realistic sedimentological, structural and dynamic reservoir parameter uncertainties are identified and propagated to obtain realistic variability in the reservoir simulator response. These integrated workflows are used to generate an ensemble of equi-probable reservoir models. All realizations in the ensemble are then history-matched simultaneously before carrying out the production predictions using the entire ensemble.
Analysis of the updates made during the history-matching process demonstrates valuable insights to the reservoir such as the presence of enhanced permeability streaks. These represent a challenge in the explicit modeling process due to the complex responses on the well log profiles. However, results analysis of the history matched ensemble shows that the location of high permeability updates generated by the history matching process is consistent with geological observations of enhanced permeability streaks in cores and the sequence stratigraphic framework. Additionally, post processing of available PLT data as a blind test show trends of fluid flow along horizontal wells are well captured, increasing confidence in the geologic consistency of the ensemble of models. This modeling approach provides an ensemble of history- matched reservoir models having an excellent match for both field and individual wells’ observed field production data. Furthermore, with the recommended modeling workflows, the generated models are geologically consistent and honor inherent correlations in the input data. Forecast of this ensemble of models enables realistic uncertainties in dynamic responses to be quantified, providing insights for informed reservoir management decisions and risk mitigation.
Analysis of forecasted ensemble dynamic responses help evaluating performance of existing infill targets and delineate new infill targets while understanding the associated risks under both static and dynamic uncertainty. Repeatable workflows allow incorporation of new data in a robust manner and accelerates time from model building to decision making.