Abstract
Today's total world energy demand is near 200 million BOEPD, up five-fold from 1950; over 80% is supplied by fossil fuels and nearly 60% by oil and gas. Many forecasters believe oil and gas production will decline before mid-century, but population growth and economic development combine to drive energy demand ever upward. Dramatic changes must occur in both the nature and magnitude of the various sources of energy supply, and of the various natures of demand, beyond 2050.
Yet, vast sources of energy exist. About 1.4×1019 BTU of solar radiation hits Earth's cross sectional area daily, 13,000 times current total energy use. Another 5 to 8 ×1014 BTU, roughly equal to current use, is conducted to Earth's surface daily from its interior. Einstein's equation assures that every pound of material on earth is equivalent to nearly 4×1013 BTU. Thus, the mass in each barrel of oil contains over 2 billion times more energy than is available by its combustion. Fully exploited as "atomic energy," 0.1 BOPD, about 4 gallons, could meet current total world energy demand.
Major problems exist in effectively capturing, converting, storing, transporting, and utilizing these forms of energy while meeting society's diverse and changing economic, environmental, political, cultural, geographic, and aesthetic needs and desires. Development and application of technology, though difficult, is required and almost certainly achievable.
This paper analyzes perceived world energy supply and demand beyond 2050, using a range of existing and new forecasts for fossil fuel availability and prospects for other forms of energy. Scenarios are developed for demand based on projected relationships between energy use and world economic and population growth. Responses to some earlier energy shortages are analyzed, and the pace and sweep of technological innovation needed are described in broad terms.
