An increase of gas utilization in Peninsular Malaysia causes an expansion of upstream gas producing facilities. As the number of the facilities increases, it becomes important to predict the reliability of the integrated system to ensure sufficient delivery of gas to meet the consumer needs while maintaining economical investments. Due to the complexity of the system, a joint study between PETRONAS, Esso Production Malaysia Inc. and PETRONAS Carigali Sdn. Bhd. was conducted to analyze the gas supply system reliability and determine the overall system capability to make-up for production losses due to failures of equipment within the system.

The study was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 of the study involved the assessment of the existing facilities and also the facilities that are in advanced stage of development to determine the system availability. Phase 2 utilized the same concept as Phase 1, but models were created for long term development options to better define future design and sparing philosophies.

This paper describes how the upstream gas system model was setup using a statistical simulation software specifically designed to model process systems. The general layout of the offshore gas platforms and the onshore receiving facilities and the basis used in setting up the model are discussed briefly. Examples of results obtained for the existing system and the applications of model to help assess future competing development options will also be discussed.

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