Contrary to conventional reservoir development, uncertainty analysis and design optimization of gas-condensate fields have received less attention due to a general assumption that oil field production data analysis and computational methodologies and techniques can be applied to gas-condensate fields. Understanding the uncertainties and performance of gas-condensate reservoirs is vital to predict production profiles. This paper investigates and reviews published literature of the most essential factors affecting gas-condensate production in a domain of real data from gas condensate fields.

In this paper, uncertainty analysis was performed using third and fourth order factorial design (Box Behnken technique) on a domain of gas-condensate fields' data to identify key factors affecting the production of condensates from heterogeneous and ultra-low permeability reservoirs. Objective functions and response surface models for gas-condensate reservoirs were optimized as functions of cumulative condensate production incorporating the effects of condensate banking in gas condensate fields. A second-order surrogate model was designed by regressing compositional results and then optimized as functions of the ten main factors affecting gas-condensate reservoir production.

Uncertainty analysis of gas-condensate reservoirs revealed that condensate blockage radius, reservoir permeability, well spacing, reservoir thickness; compressibility, initial pressure; fracture spacing and initial condensate saturation were the most significant parameters affecting condensate production. Validation results revealed that the surrogate models of gas-condensate recoveries could be used with good confidence to predict condensate values in heterogeneous and ultra-low permeability reservoirs.

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