Abstract
This integrated management system is design to efficiently manage and optimize the production excellence opportunities portfolio especially in mature field where higher risk presence technically and economically. Project management, LEAN process, lesson learnt and best practices were incorporated in developing the standardized workflow. The portfolio optimization model provides comprehensives technical and economical evaluation.
The technical success probability sub-model incorporates the technical KPIs and the project criticality index to generate project level probability. At this level, due to lack of local experience, the outcome can be either optimistic or pessimistic. To prevent this and recognizing the similar technology has been utilized elsewhere to solve similar problem, the industry track record can be combine with local perception via Bayes' Theorem to generate more realistic probability. The potential way forward is to incorporate the sub-model with case based reasoning and Bayes network for a more robust decision and evaluation.
The economic sub-model combined with project schedule incorporates probabilistic assumption to the benefit for each technology, hydrocarbon price, cost and time. The portfolio optimization risk-gain model incorporated both the forecast results from technical and economical sub-models to optimize the new technology portfolio. The model will run 1000 iterations to achieve the objective by maximizing the P50 NPV (net present value) of the project but within the predefined constrained and acceptable risk. The optimization results will be further undergo multidisciplinary peer review prior continuing the standardize workflow.
The management system is currently used in mature field project in North Sea to efficiently identify, manage, optimized the opportunities portfolio, and has demonstrated good execution and success cases.
