This paper presents several trial calculations on supply and demand forecast of the unconventional hydrocarbons (UHC) under the control of CO2 emission using the Ultra-Long Term Supply/Demand Balance Model1. We performed five cases of variation on the basis of BAU (bussiness as usual) case. As a result, the substantial production of UHC would begin around the year of 2030, and the production cost should jump up to about 1.5 ~ 2 times of the present conventional gas cost toward 2100. Most of the under-developing countries will be fully developed to increase their energy consumption. Thus, transfer of technologies to under-developing countries shall become important and it may be not enough for reducing CO2 emission to expand natural gas consumption only. Therefore, a combination of various measures, in another words, best-mix formula of primary energy supply is essential. Especially, the promotion of energy conservation and the utilization of renewable energies would be more effective measure for CO2 reduction as well as controlling the UHC production cost.

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