Quantitative forecasts of sub-surface productivity underpin prospect appraisal and development planning, yet the uncertainties intrinsic to those forecasts are difficult to predict. Moreover, the uncertainties invariably remain commercially significant throughout the field life cycle. This paper supports a case for the application of process-based logic to uncertainty handling, expressed in terms of independent, deterministically designed, concept-based development scenarios. Case studies of scenario-based logic are given, applied to 3-D reservoir modelling and simulation for a new, ‘greenfield’ site in Oman and a mature, ‘brownfield’ asset in Thailand. In both cases, uncertainty ranges are generated which provide a quantitative link between subsurface unknowns and commercial decisionmaking.

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