Hydrocarbon exploration has world-widely become mature and only remote areas are remaining as new frontiers. This brings forth increase of exploration costs. Under these situation, risk analyses or feasibility studies for new projects, especially for exploration projects, have increased their importance. "ROR" has been popularly used for a long time to judge the profitability of projects. But it assumes a discovery of a certain volume of oil or gas accumulation and does not mention the probability of the success. Another important factor to be considered in selection of projects is a probability of the success or a probability of discovery with more than minimum economical size. Recently, the probability is given in a form of probability distribution. A probability distribution of expected reserves and a feasibility criterion such as ROR are still separately used in many companies.

Here I intend to introduce the concept and the calculation procedure of a new feasibility criterion "Risked ROR". This combines the success probability and ROR. By using this concept, plural projects are comparable with each other based on single criterion instead of using two criteria. For this purpose, companies only need to prescribe a certain yardstick value of risked ROR as a company policy.

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