Abstract

A methodology for quantitative risk assessment of petroleum pipeline has been presented and applied in this paper. The proposed methodology consists of both the analysis of probability of failure and the consequences of fatalities are analysed using commercial software CANARY v.4.2. Based on the outcome of probability of failure and consequences, the individual and societal risk of pipeline is then estimated. The time of presence of an individual in the hazardous zone is taken into account during calculations of the individual risk. Societal risk is represented by an F-N plot that defines the relationship between frequency and the number of people suffering from fire and explosion due to fuel spills. Both individual and societal risks are modelled using SAFETI FX 6.5.1 software by DNV. The methodology is capable of analysing quantitative risk of any pipeline, irrespective of location. The approach has been applied to conduct quantitative risk assessment as well as study the differences in consequences and risks arising from the failure of gasoline and natural gas pipelines. The methodology is robust and can be broadened to cover different failure factors.

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