We extend the calculation of fault slip potentials (FSP-s) to three dimensions by including the depth and dip of the faults. This yields the likelihood of fault reactivation as a function of depth, orientations, external stresses and cohesion. Furthermore, the 3D Mohr circles provide visual insight into safety distances for shear failure of pre-existing faults, as well as a sensitivity analysis of the importance of uncertainties in all geomechanical input parameters. Sensitivities are obtained by Monte Carlo sampling of the parameter space, thus including their uncertainties. In addition, the directions of fault slip are calculated. By applying the above analysis to a set of faults identified in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, our results show that the introduction of slip direction and the safety distance, along with the extended 3D FSP analysis, can help identify the depths that are more likely to slip of different faults and therefore potentially leading to felt seismicity.

Presentation Date: Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Session Start Time: 8:30 AM

Presentation Start Time: 9:45 AM

Location: 217B

Presentation Type: Oral

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