Current efforts to analyze the risk of induced seismicity caused by fluid injection, and to develop mitigation strategies with a rigorous scientific basis, are hindered by a lack of numerical models incorporating the full physics of the problem. We outline an approach in which realistic Earth stress models are incorporated by utilizing well logs and other calibration data. Fluid injection and the creation of hydraulic fractures are simulated, and subsequent stress changes on nearby faults due to pore pressure and poroelastic stresses estimated. When slip is initiated on faults due to exceedance of a defined failure criterion, both slow (aseismic) slip and dynamic rupture are simulated. Models can be executed stochastically to generate probabilistic results for generated seismic event magnitudes. This tool can therefore be used for probabilistic assessment of site-specific propensity for different treatment designs to produce induced seismicity of different magnitudes. Here we show an example model based on a real case study, and compare the model results to those observed using a microseismic array. The results show good agreement, suggesting that this approach is a promising avenue for improving induced seismicity risk analysis and mitigation.

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