A series of earthquakes was recorded along a mapped fault system near Azle, Texas, in 2013. To identify the mechanism of seismicity, geologic, production/injection, and seismicity data are gathered to build a detailed simulation model with coupled fluid flow and geomechanics to model fluid injection/production and the potential onset of seismicity. Sensitivity studies for a broad range of reservoir and geomechanical parameters are performed to identify the influential parameters for injection wellhead pressure and earthquake data. A Pareto‐based multi‐objective history matching is performed using these influential parameters. The calibrated results are used to identify the controlling mechanisms for seismicity in the Azle area, North Texas, and their relationship to hydrocarbon production and fluid injection in the vicinity.
Geomechanical interaction has a significant impact on seismicity in the Azle area. Unbalanced loading created by the difference in the net fluid injection and production on different sides of the fault seems to generate accumulation of plastic strain change, likely resulting in the onset of seismicity. Previous studies ignore fluid withdrawal from gas production. Thus, they seem to have significantly underestimated the fluid withdrawal rates, almost by an order of magnitude. The equivalent bottomhole‐voidage fluid rate used in this study suggests a drop in history‐matched reservoir pore pressure that is consistent with the observed tubinghead pressure trends. Pore pressure increases may not fully explain the seismicity near the Azle area. Instead, geomechanical effects and strain propagation to the basement appear to be the dominant mechanisms. The low fault cohesion and minimum effective horizontal stress obtained from history matching confirm that the faults must be near or at the critically stressed state before the initiation of fluid production/injection. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the minimum effective horizontal stress and fracture gradient play a critical role in the potential risk for seismicity related to fluid injection/production. A streamline flow pattern further shows that there is no fluid movement in the basement formation and the unbalanced loading from different sides of the fault is more likely the controlling mechanism for seismicity.