A drilling prospect with several potential pay zones is modeled. Analytical arguments involving conditional probabilities reveal that geological dependence has no bearing on either the expected number of successful layers or the expected combined reserves. Monte Carlo simulation sheds light on the dispersion of the reserve distribution. A case study of an offshore Louisiana prospect with three layers illustrates the principles described. The general approach outlined in this model of layered pay zones can be applied to other types of prospects having multiple components that may be related such as fault blocks. Moreover, in addition to reserves, we can address other measures such as capital investment or completion costs.

Keywords:
possible outcome, spe reservoir engineering, dependency, upstream oil & gas, carlo simulation, reservoir characterization, conditional probability, aggregate reserve, successful layer, artificial intelligence
Subjects:
Information Management and Systems, Reserves Evaluation, Reservoir Characterization, Seismic processing and interpretation
Copyright 1996, Society of Petroleum Engineers
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